Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Brady Martin★ | F | OHL | 19.4 | NSH | 25′ #5 | 1 | 24.6 | 78% | 1.4y @20.8 | 294383 | 46.1 |
| 30 | Cameron Reid | F | OHL | 19.4 | NSH* | 25′ #21 | 0.98 | 24.2 | 70% | 2.6y @22 | 193573 | 37.6 |
| 115 | Ryker Lee | F | NCAA | 19.8 | NSH | 25′ #26 | 0.86 | 28.8 | 55% | 2.5y @22.3 | 153061 | 28.9 |
| 562 | Alex Huang | D | LHJMQ | 19.1 | NSH* | 25′ #122 | 1.13 | 25.9 | 45% | 2.9y @22 | 01151 | 16.2 |
| 675 | Benjamin Cossette Ayotte | D | LHJMQ | 18.6 | NSH* | 26′ #179 | 0.61 | 14.1 | 35% | 4.5y @23.1 | 0844 | 13.9 |
| 794 | Justin Graf | F | USHL | 19.1 | NSH* | 26′ #118 | 1.06 | 20.8 | 23% | 3.7y @22.8 | 0046 | 12.2 |
| 964 | Jacob Rombach | D | NCAA | 19.4 | NSH* | 25′ #35 | 0.11 | 3.7 | 30% | 2.7y @22.1 | 0027 | 10.1 |
| 991 | Teddy Stiga | F | NCAA | 20.4 | NSH* | 24′ #55 | 0.68 | 22.8 | 25% | 2.6y @23 | 0030 | 9.7 |
| 1413 | Miguel Marques | F | NCAA | 20.5 | NSH* | 24′ #87 | 0.7 | 23.4 | 15% | 3.4y @23.9 | 0025 | 5.4 |
| 1455 | Hiroki Gojsic | F | WHL | 20.3 | NSH* | 24′ #94 | 0.75 | 18.3 | 10% | 3.6y @23.9 | 0020 | 5 |
| 1467 | Viktor Norringer | F | USHL | 20 | NSH* | 24′ #127 | 1.02 | 20.1 | 10% | 2y @22 | 0021 | 5 |
| 1471 | Evan Smith | F | WHL | 20.3 | NSH* | 15′ #205 | 0.51 | 12.7 | 12% | 2.7y @23 | 0020 | 4.9 |
| 1837 | Dylan MacKinnon | D | LHJMQ | 21.6 | NSH* | 23′ #83 | 0.24 | 5.6 | 10% | 3.2y @24.8 | 0011 | 2.7 |
Who each prospect looks like
14. Brady Martin78% NHL · 1.4y
| William Nylander 14′#8 | 100 pk | 750 GP |
| Jake Virtanen 14′#6 | 43 pk | 317 GP |
| Michael McLeod 16′#12 | 35 pk | 287 GP |
| Vitali Kravtsov 18′#9 | never stuck | 64 GP |
| Bo Horvat 13′#9 | 90 pk | 881 GP |
30. Cameron Reid70% NHL · 2.6y
| Josh Norris 17′#19 | 68 pk | 283 GP |
| Jack Roslovic 15′#25 | 58 pk | 595 GP |
| Janne Kuokkanen 16′#43 | 41 pk | 119 GP |
| Rasmus Asplund 16′#33 | 32 pk | 189 GP |
| Michael McLeod 16′#12 | 35 pk | 287 GP |
115. Ryker Lee55% NHL · 2.5y
| Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32 | never stuck | 98 GP |
| Ryan Poehling 17′#25 | 39 pk | 358 GP |
| Marcus Davidsson 17′#37 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Ryan Hartman 13′#30 | 65 pk | 725 GP |
| Emile Poirier 13′#22 | never stuck | 8 GP |
562. Alex Huang45% NHL · 2.9y
| Ryan Pilon 15′#147 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Victor Mete 16′#100 | 18 pk | 248 GP |
| Samuel Girard 16′#47 | 55 pk | 608 GP |
| Henri Jokiharju 17′#29 | 30 pk | 448 GP |
| Mark Friedman 14′#86 | never stuck | 93 GP |
675. Benjamin Cossette Ayotte35% NHL · 4.5y
| Will Butcher 13′#123 | 45 pk | 275 GP |
| Joakim Ryan 12′#198 | 16 pk | 145 GP |
| Mark Friedman 14′#86 | never stuck | 93 GP |
| Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85 | 44 pk | 596 GP |
| Brian Cooper 12′#127 | never stuck | 0 GP |
794. Justin Graf23% NHL · 3.7y
| William Lockwood 16′#64 | never stuck | 54 GP |
| Jonne Tammela 15′#118 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| John McCarron 12′#153 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Luke Johnson 13′#134 | never stuck | 32 GP |
| Frederik Tiffels 15′#167 | never stuck | 0 GP |
964. Jacob Rombach30% NHL · 2.7y
| Patrick Sieloff 12′#42 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Alexander Romanov 18′#38 | 26 pk | 369 GP |
| Ryan Lindgren 16′#49 | 29 pk | 481 GP |
| Adam Ginning 18′#50 | never stuck | 16 GP |
| Brendan Guhle 15′#51 | never stuck | 65 GP |
991. Teddy Stiga25% NHL · 2.6y
| Filip Hallander 18′#58 | never stuck | 16 GP |
| Warren Foegele 14′#67 | 46 pk | 581 GP |
| Tommy Novak 15′#85 | 69 pk | 285 GP |
| Jansen Harkins 15′#47 | 20 pk | 305 GP |
| William Bitten 16′#70 | never stuck | 4 GP |
1413. Miguel Marques15% NHL · 3.4y
| Steven Hodges 12′#84 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jackson Houck 13′#94 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Zach Pochiro 13′#112 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Damien Riat 16′#117 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Tommy Novak 15′#85 | 69 pk | 285 GP |
1455. Hiroki Gojsic10% NHL · 3.6y
| Michael Clarke 12′#132 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Connor Bunnaman 16′#109 | never stuck | 54 GP |
| Steven Hodges 12′#84 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| CJ Suess 14′#129 | never stuck | 5 GP |
| Clark Bishop 14′#127 | never stuck | 53 GP |
1467. Viktor Norringer10% NHL · 2y
| Ross Colton 16′#118 | 41 pk | 404 GP |
| Marián Studenic 17′#143 | never stuck | 46 GP |
| Spencer Smallman 15′#138 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Francis Beauvillier 12′#174 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Julien Nantel 14′#204 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1471. Evan Smith12% NHL · 2.7y
| Pontus Holmberg 18′#156 | 29 pk | 229 GP |
| Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170 | never stuck | 6 GP |
| Patrick Shea 15′#192 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Markus Soberg 13′#165 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Gavin Hain 18′#174 | never stuck | 0 GP |