Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
115	Ryker Lee	F	NCAA	19.8	NSH	25′ #26	0.86	28.8	55%	2.5y @22.3	153061	28.9
238	Aiden Fink	F	NCAAPRO	21.7	NSH	23′ #218	1.27	42.6	53%	1.4y @23.1	02751	24.9
764	Adam Ingram	F	NCAAPRO	22.9	NSH*	22′ #82	0.52	17.5	28%	0.7y @23.6	0034	12.6
850	Sutter Muzzatti	F	NCAAPRO	23.1	NSH*	23′ #143	0.86	29.1	20%	1.3y @24.4	0037	11.4
964	Jacob Rombach	D	NCAA	19.4	NSH*	25′ #35	0.11	3.7	30%	2.7y @22.1	0027	10.1
991	Teddy Stiga	F	NCAA	20.4	NSH*	24′ #55	0.68	22.8	25%	2.6y @23	0030	9.7
996	Erik Påhlsson	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	NSH*	24′ #213	0.44	14.7	17%	0.8y @23.2	0027	9.6
1033	Graham Sward	D	NCAAPRO	22.9	NSH*	22′ #146	0.4	13.4	25%	2y @24.9	0027	9
1413	Miguel Marques	F	NCAA	20.5	NSH*	24′ #87	0.7	23.4	15%	3.4y @23.9	0025	5.4

Who each prospect looks like

115. Ryker Lee55% NHL · 2.5y

Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP
Ryan Poehling 17′#25	39 pk	358 GP
Marcus Davidsson 17′#37	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Hartman 13′#30	65 pk	725 GP
Emile Poirier 13′#22	never stuck	8 GP

238. Aiden Fink53% NHL · 1.4y

Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Oskar Lindblom 14′#138	49 pk	337 GP
Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Maxim Mamin 16′#175	never stuck	73 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP

764. Adam Ingram28% NHL · 0.7y

Jonathan Ang 16′#94	never stuck	0 GP
Austin Poganski 14′#110	never stuck	22 GP
Juho Lammikko 14′#65	16 pk	183 GP
Clark Bishop 14′#127	never stuck	53 GP
Conor Garland 15′#123	65 pk	556 GP

850. Sutter Muzzatti20% NHL · 1.3y

Glenn Gawdin 15′#116	never stuck	13 GP
Otto Somppi 16′#206	never stuck	0 GP
Olle Lycksell 17′#168	never stuck	52 GP
Mason Appleton 15′#168	37 pk	465 GP
Filip Ahl 15′#109	never stuck	0 GP

964. Jacob Rombach30% NHL · 2.7y

Patrick Sieloff 12′#42	never stuck	2 GP
Alexander Romanov 18′#38	26 pk	369 GP
Ryan Lindgren 16′#49	29 pk	481 GP
Adam Ginning 18′#50	never stuck	16 GP
Brendan Guhle 15′#51	never stuck	65 GP

991. Teddy Stiga25% NHL · 2.6y

Filip Hallander 18′#58	never stuck	16 GP
Warren Foegele 14′#67	46 pk	581 GP
Tommy Novak 15′#85	69 pk	285 GP
Jansen Harkins 15′#47	20 pk	305 GP
William Bitten 16′#70	never stuck	4 GP

996. Erik Påhlsson17% NHL · 0.8y

Joel Vermin 13′#186	never stuck	24 GP
Pavel Koltygin 17′#176	never stuck	0 GP
Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171	never stuck	0 GP
Oskar Steen 16′#165	never stuck	60 GP
Ryan McGregor 17′#172	never stuck	0 GP

1033. Graham Sward25% NHL · 2y

Luc Snuggerud 14′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Niklas Tikkinen 12′#148	never stuck	0 GP
MacKenzie Weegar 13′#206	55 pk	629 GP
Linus Hogberg 16′#139	never stuck	5 GP
Ville Rasanen 17′#197	never stuck	0 GP

1413. Miguel Marques15% NHL · 3.4y

Steven Hodges 12′#84	never stuck	0 GP
Jackson Houck 13′#94	never stuck	0 GP
Zach Pochiro 13′#112	never stuck	0 GP
Damien Riat 16′#117	never stuck	0 GP
Tommy Novak 15′#85	69 pk	285 GP