Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 562 | Alex Huang | D | LHJMQ | 19.1 | NSH* | 25′ #122 | 1.13 | 25.9 | 45% | 2.9y @22 | 01151 | 16.2 |
| 675 | Benjamin Cossette Ayotte | D | LHJMQ | 18.6 | NSH* | 26′ #179 | 0.61 | 14.1 | 35% | 4.5y @23.1 | 0844 | 13.9 |
| 1837 | Dylan MacKinnon | D | LHJMQ | 21.6 | NSH* | 23′ #83 | 0.24 | 5.6 | 10% | 3.2y @24.8 | 0011 | 2.7 |
Who each prospect looks like
562. Alex Huang45% NHL · 2.9y
| Ryan Pilon 15′#147 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Victor Mete 16′#100 | 18 pk | 248 GP |
| Samuel Girard 16′#47 | 55 pk | 608 GP |
| Henri Jokiharju 17′#29 | 30 pk | 448 GP |
| Mark Friedman 14′#86 | never stuck | 93 GP |
675. Benjamin Cossette Ayotte35% NHL · 4.5y
| Will Butcher 13′#123 | 45 pk | 275 GP |
| Joakim Ryan 12′#198 | 16 pk | 145 GP |
| Mark Friedman 14′#86 | never stuck | 93 GP |
| Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85 | 44 pk | 596 GP |
| Brian Cooper 12′#127 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1837. Dylan MacKinnon10% NHL · 3.2y
| Jan Kostalek 13′#114 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Axel Andersson 18′#57 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Matthew Berkovitz 14′#123 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Robin Norell 13′#111 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| William Lagesson 14′#91 | 11 pk | 107 GP |