Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
407	Philip Hemmyr	F	ALLSVENSKANPRO	19.2	NSH*	26′ #138	0.33	10.4	40%	3.4y @22.6	01258	20
644	Viggo Gustafsson	D	ALLSVENSKANPRO	19.9	NSH*	24′ #77	0.2	6.2	47%	2.8y @22.7	01431	14.7

Who each prospect looks like

407. Philip Hemmyr40% NHL · 3.4y

Maksim Sushko 17′#107	never stuck	2 GP
Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Beck Malenstyn 16′#145	21 pk	262 GP
Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Gabriel Fortier 18′#59	never stuck	11 GP

644. Viggo Gustafsson47% NHL · 2.8y

Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Alexander Romanov 18′#38	26 pk	369 GP
Adam Pelech 12′#65	29 pk	642 GP