Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
237	Joakim Kemell	F	AHLPRO	22.3	NSH*	22′ #17	0.6	21.8	60%	1y @23.3	02753	24.9
422	Tanner Molendyk	D	AHLPRO	21.5	NSH*	23′ #24	0.38	13.8	55%	1.3y @22.8	01844	19.6
464	Kalan Lind	F	AHLPRO	21.6	NSH*	23′ #46	0.31	11.1	53%	1.4y @23	01637	18.6
530	Joey Willis	F	AHLPRO	21.4	NSH*	23′ #111	0.39	14.2	35%	1.4y @22.8	0958	16.9
827	Ryan Ufko	D	AHLPRO	23.3	NSH*	21′ #115	0.85	30.5	28%	0.7y @24	0037	11.7
1443	Jack Matier	D	AHLPRO	23.4	NSH*	21′ #124	0.25	9	15%	2.5y @25.9	0024	5.1
1841	Austin Roest	F	AHLPRO	22.6	NSH*	23′ #175	0.17	6.2	5%	1.3y @23.9	0012	2.6

Who each prospect looks like

237. Joakim Kemell60% NHL · 1y

Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28	never stuck	1 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP
Rasmus Asplund 16′#33	32 pk	189 GP
Kole Lind 17′#33	never stuck	31 GP
Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36	never stuck	3 GP

422. Tanner Molendyk55% NHL · 1.3y

Ryan Merkley 18′#21	never stuck	39 GP
Lucas Johansen 16′#28	never stuck	9 GP
Pierre-Olivier Joseph 17′#23	23 pk	225 GP
Travis Dermott 15′#34	29 pk	348 GP
Josh Jacobs 14′#41	never stuck	3 GP

464. Kalan Lind53% NHL · 1.4y

Valentin Zykov 13′#37	never stuck	55 GP
Brendan Lemieux 14′#31	25 pk	307 GP
Scott Kosmachuk 12′#70	never stuck	8 GP
Chandler Stephenson 12′#77	66 pk	653 GP
Vaclav Karabacek 14′#49	never stuck	0 GP

530. Joey Willis35% NHL · 1.4y

Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Paul Cotter 18′#115	27 pk	296 GP
Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Mikhail Vorobyev 15′#104	never stuck	35 GP
Carsen Twarynski 16′#82	never stuck	22 GP

827. Ryan Ufko28% NHL · 0.7y

Devon Toews 14′#108	71 pk	541 GP
Christian Djoos 12′#195	25 pk	155 GP
Colin Miller 12′#151	41 pk	590 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Victor Berglund 17′#195	never stuck	0 GP

1443. Jack Matier15% NHL · 2.5y

Niclas Almari 16′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Prapavessis 14′#105	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Colby Williams 15′#173	never stuck	0 GP
Nico Gross 18′#101	never stuck	0 GP

1841. Austin Roest5% NHL · 1.3y

Radel Fazleev 14′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Conner Bleackley 16′#144	never stuck	0 GP
Chase Lang 14′#167	never stuck	0 GP
Nathan Noel 16′#113	never stuck	0 GP
Filip Helt 16′#211	never stuck	0 GP