Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
65	Tanner Molendyk	D	AHLPRO	21.5	NSH*	23′ #24	0.38	13.8	55%	1.3y @22.8	01844	19.6
91	Kasper Kulonummi	D	LIIGAPRO	22.5	NSH*	22′ #84	0.5	22.1	38%	1.6y @24.1	01344	16.6
97	Alex Huang	D	LHJMQ	19.1	NSH*	25′ #122	1.13	25.9	45%	2.9y @22	01151	16.2
122	Viggo Gustafsson	D	ALLSVENSKANPRO	19.9	NSH*	24′ #77	0.2	6.2	47%	2.8y @22.7	01431	14.7
131	Benjamin Cossette Ayotte	D	LHJMQ	18.6	NSH*	26′ #179	0.61	14.1	35%	4.5y @23.1	0844	13.9
185	Ryan Ufko	D	AHLPRO	23.3	NSH*	21′ #115	0.85	30.5	28%	0.7y @24	0037	11.7
258	Jacob Rombach	D	NCAA	19.4	NSH*	25′ #35	0.11	3.7	30%	2.7y @22.1	0027	10.1
297	Graham Sward	D	NCAAPRO	22.9	NSH*	22′ #146	0.4	13.4	25%	2y @24.9	0027	9
457	Anton Olsson	D	LIIGAPRO	23.6	NSH*	21′ #72	0.28	12.2	12%	1.7y @25.3	0017	5.1
458	Jack Matier	D	AHLPRO	23.4	NSH*	21′ #124	0.25	9	15%	2.5y @25.9	0024	5.1
575	Dylan MacKinnon	D	LHJMQ	21.6	NSH*	23′ #83	0.24	5.6	10%	3.2y @24.8	0011	2.7

Who each prospect looks like

65. Tanner Molendyk55% NHL · 1.3y

Ryan Merkley 18′#21	never stuck	39 GP
Lucas Johansen 16′#28	never stuck	9 GP
Pierre-Olivier Joseph 17′#23	23 pk	225 GP
Travis Dermott 15′#34	29 pk	348 GP
Josh Jacobs 14′#41	never stuck	3 GP

91. Kasper Kulonummi38% NHL · 1.6y

Reilly Walsh 17′#81	never stuck	1 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Andrei Mironov 15′#101	never stuck	10 GP
Sean Durzi 18′#52	44 pk	302 GP

97. Alex Huang45% NHL · 2.9y

Ryan Pilon 15′#147	never stuck	0 GP
Victor Mete 16′#100	18 pk	248 GP
Samuel Girard 16′#47	55 pk	608 GP
Henri Jokiharju 17′#29	30 pk	448 GP
Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP

122. Viggo Gustafsson47% NHL · 2.8y

Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Alexander Romanov 18′#38	26 pk	369 GP
Adam Pelech 12′#65	29 pk	642 GP

131. Benjamin Cossette Ayotte35% NHL · 4.5y

Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85	44 pk	596 GP
Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP

185. Ryan Ufko28% NHL · 0.7y

Devon Toews 14′#108	71 pk	541 GP
Christian Djoos 12′#195	25 pk	155 GP
Colin Miller 12′#151	41 pk	590 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Victor Berglund 17′#195	never stuck	0 GP

258. Jacob Rombach30% NHL · 2.7y

Patrick Sieloff 12′#42	never stuck	2 GP
Alexander Romanov 18′#38	26 pk	369 GP
Ryan Lindgren 16′#49	29 pk	481 GP
Adam Ginning 18′#50	never stuck	16 GP
Brendan Guhle 15′#51	never stuck	65 GP

297. Graham Sward25% NHL · 2y

Luc Snuggerud 14′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Niklas Tikkinen 12′#148	never stuck	0 GP
MacKenzie Weegar 13′#206	55 pk	629 GP
Linus Hogberg 16′#139	never stuck	5 GP
Ville Rasanen 17′#197	never stuck	0 GP

457. Anton Olsson12% NHL · 1.7y

Ty Emberson 18′#73	27 pk	178 GP
Cam Dineen 16′#68	never stuck	38 GP
Kasper Kotkansalo 17′#71	never stuck	0 GP
Jacob Ragnarsson 18′#70	never stuck	0 GP
Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP

458. Jack Matier15% NHL · 2.5y

Niclas Almari 16′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Prapavessis 14′#105	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Colby Williams 15′#173	never stuck	0 GP
Nico Gross 18′#101	never stuck	0 GP

575. Dylan MacKinnon10% NHL · 3.2y

Jan Kostalek 13′#114	never stuck	0 GP
Axel Andersson 18′#57	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Berkovitz 14′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Norell 13′#111	never stuck	0 GP
William Lagesson 14′#91	11 pk	107 GP