Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
12	Matias Vanhanen★	F	WHL	18.9	NJD*	26′ #37	1.4	34.5	75%	1.9y @20.8	244890	47.8
252	Luke Wilfley	F	WHL	18.1	NJD*	26′ #172	0.23	5.6	45%	3.9y @22	0058	24.5
322	Cole Brown	F	NCAAPRO	21.3	NJD*	23′ #164	0.6	20.2	42%	1.6y @22.9	02355	22.2
401	Anton Silayev	D	KHLPRO	20.4	NJD	24′ #10	0.05	3.1	57%	2.4y @22.8	101942	20
406	Nikita Shcherbakov	D	VHLPRO	18.8	NJD*	26′ #44	0.29	7	57%	3.9y @22.7	101942	20
576	Chase Cheslock	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	NJD*	23′ #154	0.63	21.2	40%	1.7y @23.5	01143	15.8
582	Kasper Pikkarainen	F	LIIGAPRO	20	NJD*	24′ #85	0.13	5.9	40%	2.6y @22.6	0055	15.8
583	Gustav Hillstrom	F	SHLPRO	19.6	NJD*	25′ #114	0.04	1.8	40%	3.2y @22.8	0055	15.8
590	Daniil Orlov	D	KHLPRO	22.7	NJD*	22′ #110	0.42	26.8	40%	1.4y @24.1	01341	15.6
592	Quinn McKenzie	F	OHL	18.7	NJD*	26′ #222	0.78	19.3	30%	4.4y @23.1	0052	15.6
648	Lavr Gashilov	F	MHL	18.9	NJD*	26′ #119	1.35	20	30%	3.9y @22.8	0046	14.6
680	Matyas Melovsky	F	AHLPRO	22.2	NJD*	24′ #171	0.47	17.1	23%	1y @23.2	0048	13.8
751	Cam Squires	F	AHLPRO	21.4	NJD*	23′ #122	0.34	12.3	25%	1.6y @23	0037	12.8
774	Seamus Casey	D	AHLPRO	22.6	NJD*	22′ #46	0.66	23.6	25%	1.2y @23.8	0041	12.5
801	Samu Salminen	F	NCAAPRO	23.4	NJD*	21′ #68	0.67	22.7	25%	1.7y @25.1	0034	11.9
826	Etienne Morin	D	AHLPRO	21.5	NJD	23′ #48	0.17	6	42%	1.3y @22.8	01029	11.8
880	Amadeus Lombardi	F	AHLPRO	23.2	NJD	22′ #113	0.89	32.2	17%	1.5y @24.7	0037	11
1021	Conrad Fondrk	F	NCAA	19.2	NJD*	25′ #50	0.32	10.8	25%	3.9y @23.1	0032	9.2
1129	Daniil Karpovich	D	VHLPRO	21.7	NJD*	23′ #186	0	0	23%	2.4y @24.1	0024	7.9
1175	Charlie Leddy	D	NCAAPRO	22.6	NJD*	22′ #126	0.24	8.1	23%	1.9y @24.5	0026	7.3
1201	Shane Lachance	F	AHLPRO	23	NJD	21′ #186	0.4	14.5	12%	0.9y @23.9	0025	7.1
1291	Topias Vilen	D	AHLPRO	23.4	NJD	21′ #129	0.44	16	20%	1.4y @24.8	0024	6.5
1379	Artem Barabosha	D	VHLPRO	22.4	NJD*	22′ #198	0.08	1.9	17%	3.4y @25.8	0024	5.7
1535	Ben Kevan	F	NCAA	19.6	NJD*	25′ #63	0.29	9.9	15%	4.1y @23.7	0016	4.5
1605	Mason Moe	F	NCAA	19.4	NJD*	25′ #90	0.36	12.2	15%	4y @23.4	0016	4.2
1657	David Rozsival	F	USHL	19.2	NJD*	25′ #161	0.65	12.8	10%	6y @25.2	000	3.8
1728	Petr Hauser	F	CZECHIAPRO	22.9	NJD*	22′ #141	0.24	10.4	7%	1y @23.9	0020	3.4
1744	Josh Filmon	F	AHLPRO	22.4	NJD	22′ #166	0.19	7	5%	4.9y @27.3	0020	3.3

Who each prospect looks like

12. Matias Vanhanen75% NHL · 1.9y

Nikolay Goldobin 14′#27	35 pk	125 GP
Jaret Anderson-Dolan 17′#41	27 pk	134 GP
Hunter Shinkaruk 13′#24	never stuck	15 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Kailer Yamamoto 17′#22	79 pk	374 GP

252. Luke Wilfley45% NHL · 3.9y

Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Quentin Shore 13′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Jared Fiegl 14′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP

322. Cole Brown42% NHL · 1.6y

Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185	never stuck	24 GP
Philipp Kurashev 18′#120	59 pk	360 GP
Colin Smith 12′#192	never stuck	1 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Mikhail Vorobyev 15′#104	never stuck	35 GP

401. Anton Silayev57% NHL · 2.4y

Jakub Zboril 15′#13	never stuck	76 GP
Timothy Liljegren 17′#17	34 pk	311 GP
Urho Vaakanainen 17′#18	27 pk	221 GP
Hampus Lindholm 12′#6	54 pk	829 GP
Haydn Fleury 14′#7	26 pk	345 GP

406. Nikita Shcherbakov57% NHL · 3.9y

Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Urho Vaakanainen 17′#18	27 pk	221 GP
Robert Hagg 13′#41	22 pk	345 GP
Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Gabriel Carlsson 15′#29	never stuck	81 GP

576. Chase Cheslock40% NHL · 1.7y

Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Andrei Mironov 15′#101	never stuck	10 GP
Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP

582. Kasper Pikkarainen40% NHL · 2.6y

Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Dominic Turgeon 14′#63	never stuck	9 GP
Givani Smith 16′#46	12 pk	168 GP
Beck Malenstyn 16′#145	21 pk	262 GP
Drake Rymsha 17′#138	never stuck	1 GP

583. Gustav Hillstrom40% NHL · 3.2y

Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Drake Rymsha 17′#138	never stuck	1 GP
Dominic Turgeon 14′#63	never stuck	9 GP
Cliff Pu 16′#69	never stuck	0 GP
Jesse Gabrielle 15′#105	never stuck	0 GP

590. Daniil Orlov40% NHL · 1.4y

Colin Miller 12′#151	41 pk	590 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Devon Toews 14′#108	71 pk	541 GP
Christian Djoos 12′#195	25 pk	155 GP
Brandon Montour 14′#55	75 pk	665 GP

592. Quinn McKenzie30% NHL · 4.4y

Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Deblouw 12′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Dominik Kubalik 13′#191	56 pk	357 GP

648. Lavr Gashilov30% NHL · 3.9y

Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jesper Bratt 16′#162	89 pk	634 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Aidan Muir 13′#113	never stuck	0 GP

680. Matyas Melovsky23% NHL · 1y

Joel Vermin 13′#186	never stuck	24 GP
Pavel Koltygin 17′#176	never stuck	0 GP
Yegor Sharangovich 18′#141	59 pk	438 GP
Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171	never stuck	0 GP
Axel Jonsson-Fjallby 16′#147	never stuck	99 GP