Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
322	Cole Brown	F	NCAAPRO	21.3	NJD*	23′ #164	0.6	20.2	42%	1.6y @22.9	02355	22.2
401	Anton Silayev	D	KHLPRO	20.4	NJD	24′ #10	0.05	3.1	57%	2.4y @22.8	101942	20
406	Nikita Shcherbakov	D	VHLPRO	18.8	NJD*	26′ #44	0.29	7	57%	3.9y @22.7	101942	20
576	Chase Cheslock	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	NJD*	23′ #154	0.63	21.2	40%	1.7y @23.5	01143	15.8
582	Kasper Pikkarainen	F	LIIGAPRO	20	NJD*	24′ #85	0.13	5.9	40%	2.6y @22.6	0055	15.8
583	Gustav Hillstrom	F	SHLPRO	19.6	NJD*	25′ #114	0.04	1.8	40%	3.2y @22.8	0055	15.8
590	Daniil Orlov	D	KHLPRO	22.7	NJD*	22′ #110	0.42	26.8	40%	1.4y @24.1	01341	15.6
680	Matyas Melovsky	F	AHLPRO	22.2	NJD*	24′ #171	0.47	17.1	23%	1y @23.2	0048	13.8
751	Cam Squires	F	AHLPRO	21.4	NJD*	23′ #122	0.34	12.3	25%	1.6y @23	0037	12.8
774	Seamus Casey	D	AHLPRO	22.6	NJD*	22′ #46	0.66	23.6	25%	1.2y @23.8	0041	12.5
801	Samu Salminen	F	NCAAPRO	23.4	NJD*	21′ #68	0.67	22.7	25%	1.7y @25.1	0034	11.9
826	Etienne Morin	D	AHLPRO	21.5	NJD	23′ #48	0.17	6	42%	1.3y @22.8	01029	11.8
880	Amadeus Lombardi	F	AHLPRO	23.2	NJD	22′ #113	0.89	32.2	17%	1.5y @24.7	0037	11
1129	Daniil Karpovich	D	VHLPRO	21.7	NJD*	23′ #186	0	0	23%	2.4y @24.1	0024	7.9
1175	Charlie Leddy	D	NCAAPRO	22.6	NJD*	22′ #126	0.24	8.1	23%	1.9y @24.5	0026	7.3
1201	Shane Lachance	F	AHLPRO	23	NJD	21′ #186	0.4	14.5	12%	0.9y @23.9	0025	7.1
1291	Topias Vilen	D	AHLPRO	23.4	NJD	21′ #129	0.44	16	20%	1.4y @24.8	0024	6.5
1379	Artem Barabosha	D	VHLPRO	22.4	NJD*	22′ #198	0.08	1.9	17%	3.4y @25.8	0024	5.7
1728	Petr Hauser	F	CZECHIAPRO	22.9	NJD*	22′ #141	0.24	10.4	7%	1y @23.9	0020	3.4
1744	Josh Filmon	F	AHLPRO	22.4	NJD	22′ #166	0.19	7	5%	4.9y @27.3	0020	3.3

Who each prospect looks like

322. Cole Brown42% NHL · 1.6y

Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185	never stuck	24 GP
Philipp Kurashev 18′#120	59 pk	360 GP
Colin Smith 12′#192	never stuck	1 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Mikhail Vorobyev 15′#104	never stuck	35 GP

401. Anton Silayev57% NHL · 2.4y

Jakub Zboril 15′#13	never stuck	76 GP
Timothy Liljegren 17′#17	34 pk	311 GP
Urho Vaakanainen 17′#18	27 pk	221 GP
Hampus Lindholm 12′#6	54 pk	829 GP
Haydn Fleury 14′#7	26 pk	345 GP

406. Nikita Shcherbakov57% NHL · 3.9y

Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Urho Vaakanainen 17′#18	27 pk	221 GP
Robert Hagg 13′#41	22 pk	345 GP
Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Gabriel Carlsson 15′#29	never stuck	81 GP

576. Chase Cheslock40% NHL · 1.7y

Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Andrei Mironov 15′#101	never stuck	10 GP
Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP

582. Kasper Pikkarainen40% NHL · 2.6y

Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Dominic Turgeon 14′#63	never stuck	9 GP
Givani Smith 16′#46	12 pk	168 GP
Beck Malenstyn 16′#145	21 pk	262 GP
Drake Rymsha 17′#138	never stuck	1 GP

583. Gustav Hillstrom40% NHL · 3.2y

Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Drake Rymsha 17′#138	never stuck	1 GP
Dominic Turgeon 14′#63	never stuck	9 GP
Cliff Pu 16′#69	never stuck	0 GP
Jesse Gabrielle 15′#105	never stuck	0 GP

590. Daniil Orlov40% NHL · 1.4y

Colin Miller 12′#151	41 pk	590 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Devon Toews 14′#108	71 pk	541 GP
Christian Djoos 12′#195	25 pk	155 GP
Brandon Montour 14′#55	75 pk	665 GP

680. Matyas Melovsky23% NHL · 1y

Joel Vermin 13′#186	never stuck	24 GP
Pavel Koltygin 17′#176	never stuck	0 GP
Yegor Sharangovich 18′#141	59 pk	438 GP
Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171	never stuck	0 GP
Axel Jonsson-Fjallby 16′#147	never stuck	99 GP

751. Cam Squires25% NHL · 1.6y

Paul Cotter 18′#115	27 pk	296 GP
Jesse Gabrielle 15′#105	never stuck	0 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP

774. Seamus Casey25% NHL · 1.2y

Robin Salo 17′#46	never stuck	32 GP
Sean Durzi 18′#52	44 pk	302 GP
Brandon Montour 14′#55	75 pk	665 GP
Josh Brook 17′#56	never stuck	0 GP
Jordan Schmaltz 12′#25	never stuck	42 GP

801. Samu Salminen25% NHL · 1.7y

Adam Brooks 16′#92	never stuck	43 GP
Linus Karlsson 18′#87	36 pk	106 GP
Bulat Shafigullin 18′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Tanner Richard 12′#71	never stuck	3 GP
Robin Kovacs 15′#62	never stuck	0 GP

826. Etienne Morin42% NHL · 1.3y

Roland McKeown 14′#50	never stuck	16 GP
Matthew Spencer 15′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Jeremy Lauzon 15′#52	16 pk	384 GP
Dillon Fournier 12′#48	never stuck	0 GP
Josh Jacobs 14′#41	never stuck	3 GP