Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
12	Matias Vanhanen★	F	WHL	18.9	NJD*	26′ #37	1.4	34.5	75%	1.9y @20.8	244890	47.8
252	Luke Wilfley	F	WHL	18.1	NJD*	26′ #172	0.23	5.6	45%	3.9y @22	0058	24.5
592	Quinn McKenzie	F	OHL	18.7	NJD*	26′ #222	0.78	19.3	30%	4.4y @23.1	0052	15.6
648	Lavr Gashilov	F	MHL	18.9	NJD*	26′ #119	1.35	20	30%	3.9y @22.8	0046	14.6
1021	Conrad Fondrk	F	NCAA	19.2	NJD*	25′ #50	0.32	10.8	25%	3.9y @23.1	0032	9.2
1535	Ben Kevan	F	NCAA	19.6	NJD*	25′ #63	0.29	9.9	15%	4.1y @23.7	0016	4.5
1605	Mason Moe	F	NCAA	19.4	NJD*	25′ #90	0.36	12.2	15%	4y @23.4	0016	4.2
1657	David Rozsival	F	USHL	19.2	NJD*	25′ #161	0.65	12.8	10%	6y @25.2	000	3.8

Who each prospect looks like

12. Matias Vanhanen75% NHL · 1.9y

Nikolay Goldobin 14′#27	35 pk	125 GP
Jaret Anderson-Dolan 17′#41	27 pk	134 GP
Hunter Shinkaruk 13′#24	never stuck	15 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Kailer Yamamoto 17′#22	79 pk	374 GP

252. Luke Wilfley45% NHL · 3.9y

Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Quentin Shore 13′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Jared Fiegl 14′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP

592. Quinn McKenzie30% NHL · 4.4y

Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Deblouw 12′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Dominik Kubalik 13′#191	56 pk	357 GP

648. Lavr Gashilov30% NHL · 3.9y

Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jesper Bratt 16′#162	89 pk	634 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Aidan Muir 13′#113	never stuck	0 GP

1021. Conrad Fondrk25% NHL · 3.9y

Joni Ikonen 17′#58	never stuck	0 GP
Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63	46 pk	329 GP
Mackenzie MacEachern 12′#67	16 pk	131 GP
Alexander Volkov 17′#48	never stuck	46 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP

1535. Ben Kevan15% NHL · 4.1y

Tyrell Goulbourne 13′#72	never stuck	11 GP
Linus Lindstrom 16′#96	never stuck	0 GP
Linus Karlsson 18′#87	36 pk	106 GP
Mackenzie MacEachern 12′#67	16 pk	131 GP
Lane Zablocki 17′#79	never stuck	0 GP

1605. Mason Moe15% NHL · 4y

Tyrell Goulbourne 13′#72	never stuck	11 GP
Lane Zablocki 17′#79	never stuck	0 GP
Jonny Brodzinski 13′#148	31 pk	264 GP
Jack Badini 17′#91	never stuck	0 GP
Alexander Delnov 12′#114	never stuck	0 GP

1657. David Rozsival10% NHL · 6y

Dominik Kubalik 13′#191	56 pk	357 GP
Jonny Brodzinski 13′#148	31 pk	264 GP
Brian Pinho 13′#174	never stuck	2 GP
Lukas Jasek 15′#174	never stuck	0 GP
Mikael Hakkarainen 18′#139	never stuck	0 GP