Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
12	Matias Vanhanen★	F	WHL	18.9	NJD*	26′ #37	1.4	34.5	75%	1.9y @20.8	244890	47.8
252	Luke Wilfley	F	WHL	18.1	NJD*	26′ #172	0.23	5.6	45%	3.9y @22	0058	24.5

Who each prospect looks like

12. Matias Vanhanen75% NHL · 1.9y

Nikolay Goldobin 14′#27	35 pk	125 GP
Jaret Anderson-Dolan 17′#41	27 pk	134 GP
Hunter Shinkaruk 13′#24	never stuck	15 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Kailer Yamamoto 17′#22	79 pk	374 GP

252. Luke Wilfley45% NHL · 3.9y

Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Quentin Shore 13′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Jared Fiegl 14′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP