Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 406 | Nikita Shcherbakov | D | VHLPRO | 18.8 | NJD* | 26′ #44 | 0.29 | 7 | 57% | 3.9y @22.7 | 101942 | 20 |
| 1129 | Daniil Karpovich | D | VHLPRO | 21.7 | NJD* | 23′ #186 | 0 | 0 | 23% | 2.4y @24.1 | 0024 | 7.9 |
| 1379 | Artem Barabosha | D | VHLPRO | 22.4 | NJD* | 22′ #198 | 0.08 | 1.9 | 17% | 3.4y @25.8 | 0024 | 5.7 |
Who each prospect looks like
406. Nikita Shcherbakov57% NHL · 3.9y
| Martin Fehérváry 18′#46 | 27 pk | 380 GP |
| Urho Vaakanainen 17′#18 | 27 pk | 221 GP |
| Robert Hagg 13′#41 | 22 pk | 345 GP |
| Jacob Cederholm 16′#97 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Gabriel Carlsson 15′#29 | never stuck | 81 GP |
1129. Daniil Karpovich23% NHL · 2.4y
| Antti Palojarvi 17′#186 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Robin Press 13′#211 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Dawson Barteaux 18′#168 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Anton Cederholm 13′#145 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1379. Artem Barabosha17% NHL · 3.4y
| Dawson Barteaux 18′#168 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Ryan Culkin 12′#124 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Antti Palojarvi 17′#186 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Petter Hansson 15′#202 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Robin Press 13′#211 | never stuck | 0 GP |