Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
322	Cole Brown	F	NCAAPRO	21.3	NJD*	23′ #164	0.6	20.2	42%	1.6y @22.9	02355	22.2
576	Chase Cheslock	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	NJD*	23′ #154	0.63	21.2	40%	1.7y @23.5	01143	15.8
801	Samu Salminen	F	NCAAPRO	23.4	NJD*	21′ #68	0.67	22.7	25%	1.7y @25.1	0034	11.9
1021	Conrad Fondrk	F	NCAA	19.2	NJD*	25′ #50	0.32	10.8	25%	3.9y @23.1	0032	9.2
1175	Charlie Leddy	D	NCAAPRO	22.6	NJD*	22′ #126	0.24	8.1	23%	1.9y @24.5	0026	7.3
1535	Ben Kevan	F	NCAA	19.6	NJD*	25′ #63	0.29	9.9	15%	4.1y @23.7	0016	4.5
1605	Mason Moe	F	NCAA	19.4	NJD*	25′ #90	0.36	12.2	15%	4y @23.4	0016	4.2

Who each prospect looks like

322. Cole Brown42% NHL · 1.6y

Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185	never stuck	24 GP
Philipp Kurashev 18′#120	59 pk	360 GP
Colin Smith 12′#192	never stuck	1 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Mikhail Vorobyev 15′#104	never stuck	35 GP

576. Chase Cheslock40% NHL · 1.7y

Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Andrei Mironov 15′#101	never stuck	10 GP
Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP

801. Samu Salminen25% NHL · 1.7y

Adam Brooks 16′#92	never stuck	43 GP
Linus Karlsson 18′#87	36 pk	106 GP
Bulat Shafigullin 18′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Tanner Richard 12′#71	never stuck	3 GP
Robin Kovacs 15′#62	never stuck	0 GP

1021. Conrad Fondrk25% NHL · 3.9y

Joni Ikonen 17′#58	never stuck	0 GP
Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63	46 pk	329 GP
Mackenzie MacEachern 12′#67	16 pk	131 GP
Alexander Volkov 17′#48	never stuck	46 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP

1175. Charlie Leddy23% NHL · 1.9y

Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Connor Hobbs 15′#143	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Tucker 18′#200	20 pk	159 GP
Jake Walman 14′#82	52 pk	320 GP

1535. Ben Kevan15% NHL · 4.1y

Tyrell Goulbourne 13′#72	never stuck	11 GP
Linus Lindstrom 16′#96	never stuck	0 GP
Linus Karlsson 18′#87	36 pk	106 GP
Mackenzie MacEachern 12′#67	16 pk	131 GP
Lane Zablocki 17′#79	never stuck	0 GP

1605. Mason Moe15% NHL · 4y

Tyrell Goulbourne 13′#72	never stuck	11 GP
Lane Zablocki 17′#79	never stuck	0 GP
Jonny Brodzinski 13′#148	31 pk	264 GP
Jack Badini 17′#91	never stuck	0 GP
Alexander Delnov 12′#114	never stuck	0 GP