Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
680	Matyas Melovsky	F	AHLPRO	22.2	NJD*	24′ #171	0.47	17.1	23%	1y @23.2	0048	13.8
751	Cam Squires	F	AHLPRO	21.4	NJD*	23′ #122	0.34	12.3	25%	1.6y @23	0037	12.8
774	Seamus Casey	D	AHLPRO	22.6	NJD*	22′ #46	0.66	23.6	25%	1.2y @23.8	0041	12.5
880	Amadeus Lombardi	F	AHLPRO	23.2	NJD	22′ #113	0.89	32.2	17%	1.5y @24.7	0037	11
1291	Topias Vilen	D	AHLPRO	23.4	NJD*	21′ #129	0.44	16	20%	1.4y @24.8	0024	6.5
1744	Josh Filmon	F	AHLPRO	22.4	NJD*	22′ #166	0.19	7	5%	4.9y @27.3	0020	3.3

Who each prospect looks like

680. Matyas Melovsky23% NHL · 1y

Joel Vermin 13′#186	never stuck	24 GP
Pavel Koltygin 17′#176	never stuck	0 GP
Yegor Sharangovich 18′#141	59 pk	438 GP
Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171	never stuck	0 GP
Axel Jonsson-Fjallby 16′#147	never stuck	99 GP

751. Cam Squires25% NHL · 1.6y

Paul Cotter 18′#115	27 pk	296 GP
Jesse Gabrielle 15′#105	never stuck	0 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP

774. Seamus Casey25% NHL · 1.2y

Robin Salo 17′#46	never stuck	32 GP
Sean Durzi 18′#52	44 pk	302 GP
Brandon Montour 14′#55	75 pk	665 GP
Josh Brook 17′#56	never stuck	0 GP
Jordan Schmaltz 12′#25	never stuck	42 GP

880. Amadeus Lombardi17% NHL · 1.5y

Glenn Gawdin 15′#116	never stuck	13 GP
Olle Lycksell 17′#168	never stuck	52 GP
Filip Ahl 15′#109	never stuck	0 GP
Adam Mascherin 18′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Parker Foo 17′#144	never stuck	0 GP

1291. Topias Vilen20% NHL · 1.4y

Vojtech Budik 16′#130	never stuck	0 GP
Linus Hogberg 16′#139	never stuck	5 GP
Niclas Almari 16′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Luc Snuggerud 14′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Casey Fitzgerald 16′#86	never stuck	63 GP

1744. Josh Filmon5% NHL · 4.9y

Matteo Gennaro 15′#203	never stuck	0 GP
Damien Giroux 18′#155	never stuck	1 GP
Brendan Woods 12′#129	never stuck	7 GP
Ryan Olsen 12′#160	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Blidh 13′#180	never stuck	89 GP