Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
12	Matias Vanhanen★	F	WHL	18.9	NJD*	26′ #37	1.4	34.5	75%	1.9y @20.8	244890	47.8
238	Luke Wilfley	F	WHL	18.1	NJD*	26′ #172	0.23	5.6	45%	3.9y @22	0058	24.5
288	Cole Brown	F	NCAAPRO	21.3	NJD*	23′ #164	0.6	20.2	42%	1.6y @22.9	02355	22.2
479	Kasper Pikkarainen	F	LIIGAPRO	20	NJD*	24′ #85	0.13	5.9	40%	2.6y @22.6	0055	15.8
480	Gustav Hillstrom	F	SHLPRO	19.6	NJD*	25′ #114	0.04	1.8	40%	3.2y @22.8	0055	15.8
486	Quinn McKenzie	F	OHL	18.7	NJD*	26′ #222	0.78	19.3	30%	4.4y @23.1	0052	15.6
526	Lavr Gashilov	F	MHL	18.9	NJD*	26′ #119	1.35	20	30%	3.9y @22.8	0046	14.6
548	Matyas Melovsky	F	AHLPRO	22.2	NJD*	24′ #171	0.47	17.1	23%	1y @23.2	0048	13.8
596	Cam Squires	F	AHLPRO	21.4	NJD*	23′ #122	0.34	12.3	25%	1.6y @23	0037	12.8
627	Samu Salminen	F	NCAAPRO	23.4	NJD*	21′ #68	0.67	22.7	25%	1.7y @25.1	0034	11.9
663	Amadeus Lombardi	F	AHLPRO	23.2	NJD	22′ #113	0.89	32.2	17%	1.5y @24.7	0037	11
732	Conrad Fondrk	F	NCAA	19.2	NJD*	25′ #50	0.32	10.8	25%	3.9y @23.1	0032	9.2
832	Shane Lachance	F	AHLPRO	23	NJD	21′ #186	0.4	14.5	12%	0.9y @23.9	0025	7.1
1048	Ben Kevan	F	NCAA	19.6	NJD*	25′ #63	0.29	9.9	15%	4.1y @23.7	0016	4.5
1101	Mason Moe	F	NCAA	19.4	NJD*	25′ #90	0.36	12.2	15%	4y @23.4	0016	4.2
1135	David Rozsival	F	USHL	19.2	NJD*	25′ #161	0.65	12.8	10%	6y @25.2	000	3.8
1183	Petr Hauser	F	CZECHIAPRO	22.9	NJD*	22′ #141	0.24	10.4	7%	1y @23.9	0020	3.4
1198	Josh Filmon	F	AHLPRO	22.4	NJD	22′ #166	0.19	7	5%	4.9y @27.3	0020	3.3

Who each prospect looks like

12. Matias Vanhanen75% NHL · 1.9y

Nikolay Goldobin 14′#27	35 pk	125 GP
Jaret Anderson-Dolan 17′#41	27 pk	134 GP
Hunter Shinkaruk 13′#24	never stuck	15 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Kailer Yamamoto 17′#22	79 pk	374 GP

238. Luke Wilfley45% NHL · 3.9y

Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Quentin Shore 13′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Jared Fiegl 14′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP

288. Cole Brown42% NHL · 1.6y

Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185	never stuck	24 GP
Philipp Kurashev 18′#120	59 pk	360 GP
Colin Smith 12′#192	never stuck	1 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Mikhail Vorobyev 15′#104	never stuck	35 GP

479. Kasper Pikkarainen40% NHL · 2.6y

Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Dominic Turgeon 14′#63	never stuck	9 GP
Givani Smith 16′#46	12 pk	168 GP
Beck Malenstyn 16′#145	21 pk	262 GP
Drake Rymsha 17′#138	never stuck	1 GP

480. Gustav Hillstrom40% NHL · 3.2y

Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Drake Rymsha 17′#138	never stuck	1 GP
Dominic Turgeon 14′#63	never stuck	9 GP
Cliff Pu 16′#69	never stuck	0 GP
Jesse Gabrielle 15′#105	never stuck	0 GP

486. Quinn McKenzie30% NHL · 4.4y

Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Deblouw 12′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Dominik Kubalik 13′#191	56 pk	357 GP

526. Lavr Gashilov30% NHL · 3.9y

Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jesper Bratt 16′#162	89 pk	634 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Aidan Muir 13′#113	never stuck	0 GP

548. Matyas Melovsky23% NHL · 1y

Joel Vermin 13′#186	never stuck	24 GP
Pavel Koltygin 17′#176	never stuck	0 GP
Yegor Sharangovich 18′#141	59 pk	438 GP
Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171	never stuck	0 GP
Axel Jonsson-Fjallby 16′#147	never stuck	99 GP

596. Cam Squires25% NHL · 1.6y

Paul Cotter 18′#115	27 pk	296 GP
Jesse Gabrielle 15′#105	never stuck	0 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP

627. Samu Salminen25% NHL · 1.7y

Adam Brooks 16′#92	never stuck	43 GP
Linus Karlsson 18′#87	36 pk	106 GP
Bulat Shafigullin 18′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Tanner Richard 12′#71	never stuck	3 GP
Robin Kovacs 15′#62	never stuck	0 GP

663. Amadeus Lombardi17% NHL · 1.5y

Glenn Gawdin 15′#116	never stuck	13 GP
Olle Lycksell 17′#168	never stuck	52 GP
Filip Ahl 15′#109	never stuck	0 GP
Adam Mascherin 18′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Parker Foo 17′#144	never stuck	0 GP

732. Conrad Fondrk25% NHL · 3.9y

Joni Ikonen 17′#58	never stuck	0 GP
Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63	46 pk	329 GP
Mackenzie MacEachern 12′#67	16 pk	131 GP
Alexander Volkov 17′#48	never stuck	46 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP