Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
61	Anton Silayev	D	KHLPRO	20.4	NJD	24′ #10	0.05	3.1	57%	2.4y @22.8	101942	20
62	Nikita Shcherbakov	D	VHLPRO	18.8	NJD*	26′ #44	0.29	7	57%	3.9y @22.7	101942	20
100	Chase Cheslock	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	NJD*	23′ #154	0.63	21.2	40%	1.7y @23.5	01143	15.8
106	Daniil Orlov	D	KHLPRO	22.7	NJD*	22′ #110	0.42	26.8	40%	1.4y @24.1	01341	15.6
165	Seamus Casey	D	AHLPRO	22.6	NJD*	22′ #46	0.66	23.6	25%	1.2y @23.8	0041	12.5
184	Etienne Morin	D	AHLPRO	21.5	NJD	23′ #48	0.17	6	42%	1.3y @22.8	01029	11.8
349	Daniil Karpovich	D	VHLPRO	21.7	NJD*	23′ #186	0	0	23%	2.4y @24.1	0024	7.9
361	Charlie Leddy	D	NCAAPRO	22.6	NJD*	22′ #126	0.24	8.1	23%	1.9y @24.5	0026	7.3
396	Topias Vilen	D	AHLPRO	23.4	NJD	21′ #129	0.44	16	20%	1.4y @24.8	0024	6.5
436	Artem Barabosha	D	VHLPRO	22.4	NJD*	22′ #198	0.08	1.9	17%	3.4y @25.8	0024	5.7

Who each prospect looks like

61. Anton Silayev57% NHL · 2.4y

Jakub Zboril 15′#13	never stuck	76 GP
Timothy Liljegren 17′#17	34 pk	311 GP
Urho Vaakanainen 17′#18	27 pk	221 GP
Hampus Lindholm 12′#6	54 pk	829 GP
Haydn Fleury 14′#7	26 pk	345 GP

62. Nikita Shcherbakov57% NHL · 3.9y

Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Urho Vaakanainen 17′#18	27 pk	221 GP
Robert Hagg 13′#41	22 pk	345 GP
Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Gabriel Carlsson 15′#29	never stuck	81 GP

100. Chase Cheslock40% NHL · 1.7y

Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Andrei Mironov 15′#101	never stuck	10 GP
Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP

106. Daniil Orlov40% NHL · 1.4y

Colin Miller 12′#151	41 pk	590 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Devon Toews 14′#108	71 pk	541 GP
Christian Djoos 12′#195	25 pk	155 GP
Brandon Montour 14′#55	75 pk	665 GP

165. Seamus Casey25% NHL · 1.2y

Robin Salo 17′#46	never stuck	32 GP
Sean Durzi 18′#52	44 pk	302 GP
Brandon Montour 14′#55	75 pk	665 GP
Josh Brook 17′#56	never stuck	0 GP
Jordan Schmaltz 12′#25	never stuck	42 GP

184. Etienne Morin42% NHL · 1.3y

Roland McKeown 14′#50	never stuck	16 GP
Matthew Spencer 15′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Jeremy Lauzon 15′#52	16 pk	384 GP
Dillon Fournier 12′#48	never stuck	0 GP
Josh Jacobs 14′#41	never stuck	3 GP

349. Daniil Karpovich23% NHL · 2.4y

Antti Palojarvi 17′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Press 13′#211	never stuck	0 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Cederholm 13′#145	never stuck	0 GP

361. Charlie Leddy23% NHL · 1.9y

Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Connor Hobbs 15′#143	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Tucker 18′#200	20 pk	159 GP
Jake Walman 14′#82	52 pk	320 GP

396. Topias Vilen20% NHL · 1.4y

Vojtech Budik 16′#130	never stuck	0 GP
Linus Hogberg 16′#139	never stuck	5 GP
Niclas Almari 16′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Luc Snuggerud 14′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Casey Fitzgerald 16′#86	never stuck	63 GP

436. Artem Barabosha17% NHL · 3.4y

Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Culkin 12′#124	never stuck	0 GP
Antti Palojarvi 17′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Petter Hansson 15′#202	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Press 13′#211	never stuck	0 GP