Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
48	Michael Hage	F	NCAA	20.4	MTL	24′ #21	1.33	44.8	65%	2.3y @22.7	163081	33.8
105	Gleb Pugachyov	F	MHL	18.4	MTL	26′ #26	0.73	10.7	57%	3.4y @21.8	03068	29.4
113	Jake Evans	F	WHL	16.9	MTL*	14′ #207	0.12	3	50%	5y @21.9	02483	28.9
398	Bryce Pickford	F	WHL	20.4	MTL*	25′ #81	1.51	37.1	40%	2.5y @22.9	01258	20.1
526	John Mooney	F	NCAA	19.5	MTL*	25′ #113	0.88	29.7	40%	3.6y @23.1	0345	17.1
611	Brayden Klimpke	D	WHL	18.9	MTL*	26′ #117	0.69	17	40%	4.1y @23	0844	15.2
628	Parker Trottier	F	USHL	18.5	MTL*	26′ #189	0.58	11.5	33%	4.3y @22.8	0046	15.1
790	Timofei Runtso	D	WHL	19.1	MTL*	26′ #57	0.65	15.9	38%	2.8y @21.9	0033	12.2
882	Wesley Royston	F	OHL	18.7	MTL*	26′ #190	0.32	7.9	23%	5.2y @23.9	0046	11
933	Jean-Samuel Daigneault	D	USHL	18.5	MTL*	26′ #221	0.11	2.1	28%	4.6y @23.1	0029	10.5
1060	Andrew MacNiel	D	OHL	19.1	MTL*	25′ #189	0.15	3.6	23%	3.9y @23	0029	8.7
1200	Carlos Handel	D	LHJMQ	19.4	MTL*	25′ #177	0.5	11.5	20%	4.7y @24.1	0026	7.2
1260	Logan Sawyer	F	NCAA	20.3	MTL*	24′ #78	0.8	26.9	17%	3.5y @23.8	0030	6.8
1419	Owen Protz	D	OHL	20.5	MTL*	24′ #102	0.36	8.8	15%	4.3y @24.8	0027	5.3
1534	Ben Merrill	F	NCAA	20.8	MTL*	24′ #166	0.42	14.3	12%	3.1y @23.9	0020	4.5
1586	Hayden Paupanekis	F	WHL	19.5	MTL*	25′ #69	0.65	16	15%	5y @24.5	0016	4.2
1677	Cooper Cleaves	D	NCAA	20.6	MTL*	26′ #93	0.33	11.2	12%	4.3y @24.9	0014	3.7
1795	Maxon Vig	D	NCAA	20.8	MTL*	25′ #209	0.19	6.5	10%	3.1y @23.9	0011	3.1

Who each prospect looks like

48. Michael Hage65% NHL · 2.3y

Morgan Frost 17′#27	47 pk	392 GP
Jordan Kyrou 16′#35	83 pk	488 GP
Max Domi 13′#12	72 pk	815 GP
Brett Howden 16′#27	41 pk	489 GP
Jeremy Bracco 15′#61	never stuck	0 GP

105. Gleb Pugachyov57% NHL · 3.4y

Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Isac Lundeström 18′#23	30 pk	405 GP
Colin White 15′#21	47 pk	323 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP
Martin Necas 17′#12	105 pk	519 GP

113. Jake Evans50% NHL · 5y

Andrew Copp 13′#104	58 pk	779 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Jared Fiegl 14′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Stefan Matteau 12′#29	never stuck	92 GP
Tyler Moy 15′#175	never stuck	0 GP

398. Bryce Pickford40% NHL · 2.5y

Michael Amadio 14′#90	35 pk	522 GP
Stelio Mattheos 17′#73	never stuck	0 GP
Brendan Leipsic 12′#89	33 pk	187 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP
Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP

526. John Mooney40% NHL · 3.6y

Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Martin Pospisil 18′#105	31 pk	166 GP
Zach Stepan 12′#112	never stuck	0 GP
Blake Speers 15′#67	never stuck	5 GP
Jack Studnicka 17′#53	14 pk	126 GP

611. Brayden Klimpke40% NHL · 4.1y

Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Ryan Pilon 15′#147	never stuck	0 GP
Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85	44 pk	596 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP
Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP

628. Parker Trottier33% NHL · 4.3y

Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Quentin Shore 13′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP

790. Timofei Runtso38% NHL · 2.8y

Jeremy Roy 15′#31	never stuck	0 GP
Brendan Guhle 15′#51	never stuck	65 GP
Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Olli Maatta 12′#22	55 pk	804 GP
Connor Carrick 12′#137	29 pk	242 GP

882. Wesley Royston23% NHL · 5.2y

Lukas Jasek 15′#174	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Dominik Kubalik 13′#191	56 pk	357 GP
Quentin Shore 13′#168	never stuck	0 GP

933. Jean-Samuel Daigneault28% NHL · 4.6y

Steven Ruggiero 15′#178	never stuck	0 GP
Ville Rasanen 17′#197	never stuck	0 GP
Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85	44 pk	596 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP

1060. Andrew MacNiel23% NHL · 3.9y

Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140	never stuck	0 GP
Ville Rasanen 17′#197	never stuck	0 GP
John Gilmour 13′#198	never stuck	37 GP
Matt Benning 12′#175	26 pk	465 GP
Jeff Taylor 14′#203	never stuck	0 GP

1200. Carlos Handel20% NHL · 4.7y

Jeff Taylor 14′#203	never stuck	0 GP
Giovanni Vallati 18′#153	never stuck	0 GP
Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Dennis Busby 18′#145	never stuck	0 GP
Jaccob Slavin 12′#120	44 pk	784 GP