Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
113	Jake Evans	F	WHL	16.9	MTL*	14′ #207	0.12	3	50%	5y @21.9	02483	28.9
398	Bryce Pickford	F	WHL	20.4	MTL*	25′ #81	1.51	37.1	40%	2.5y @22.9	01258	20.1
611	Brayden Klimpke	D	WHL	18.9	MTL*	26′ #117	0.69	17	40%	4.1y @23	0844	15.2
790	Timofei Runtso	D	WHL	19.1	MTL*	26′ #57	0.65	15.9	38%	2.8y @21.9	0033	12.2
1586	Hayden Paupanekis	F	WHL	19.5	MTL*	25′ #69	0.65	16	15%	5y @24.5	0016	4.2

Who each prospect looks like

113. Jake Evans50% NHL · 5y

Andrew Copp 13′#104	58 pk	779 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Jared Fiegl 14′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Stefan Matteau 12′#29	never stuck	92 GP
Tyler Moy 15′#175	never stuck	0 GP

398. Bryce Pickford40% NHL · 2.5y

Michael Amadio 14′#90	35 pk	522 GP
Stelio Mattheos 17′#73	never stuck	0 GP
Brendan Leipsic 12′#89	33 pk	187 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP
Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP

611. Brayden Klimpke40% NHL · 4.1y

Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Ryan Pilon 15′#147	never stuck	0 GP
Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85	44 pk	596 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP
Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP

790. Timofei Runtso38% NHL · 2.8y

Jeremy Roy 15′#31	never stuck	0 GP
Brendan Guhle 15′#51	never stuck	65 GP
Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Olli Maatta 12′#22	55 pk	804 GP
Connor Carrick 12′#137	29 pk	242 GP

1586. Hayden Paupanekis15% NHL · 5y

Mike Winther 12′#54	never stuck	0 GP
Alexander Delnov 12′#114	never stuck	0 GP
Juho Lammikko 14′#65	16 pk	183 GP
Lane Zablocki 17′#79	never stuck	0 GP
Alex Schoenborn 14′#72	never stuck	0 GP