Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
278	Filip Eriksson	F	SHLPRO	21.8	MTL*	23′ #165	0.56	27	45%	1.3y @23.1	02455	23.6
989	Rasmus Bergqvist	D	SHLPRO	21.2	MTL*	24′ #224	0.1	4.8	28%	2.9y @24.1	0026	9.8

Who each prospect looks like

278. Filip Eriksson45% NHL · 1.3y

Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Rudolfs Balcers 15′#142	34 pk	170 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP

989. Rasmus Bergqvist28% NHL · 2.9y

Simon Bourque 15′#177	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Ganly 13′#156	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Lindholm 14′#144	never stuck	66 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP