Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
48	Michael Hage	F	NCAA	20.4	MTL	24′ #21	1.33	44.8	65%	2.3y @22.7	163081	33.8
526	John Mooney	F	NCAA	19.5	MTL*	25′ #113	0.88	29.7	40%	3.6y @23.1	0345	17.1
773	Sam Harris	F	NCAAPRO	22.9	MTL*	23′ #133	0.81	27.4	23%	1.3y @24.2	0038	12.6
950	Cedrick Guindon	F	NCAAPRO	22.3	MTL*	22′ #127	0.41	13.7	20%	0.8y @23.1	0027	10.2
1260	Logan Sawyer	F	NCAA	20.3	MTL*	24′ #78	0.8	26.9	17%	3.5y @23.8	0030	6.8
1361	Luke Mittelstadt	D	NCAAPRO	23.6	MTL*	23′ #197	0.58	19.6	17%	1.3y @24.9	0026	6
1534	Ben Merrill	F	NCAA	20.8	MTL*	24′ #166	0.42	14.3	12%	3.1y @23.9	0020	4.5
1677	Cooper Cleaves	D	NCAA	20.6	MTL*	26′ #93	0.33	11.2	12%	4.3y @24.9	0014	3.7
1795	Maxon Vig	D	NCAA	20.8	MTL*	25′ #209	0.19	6.5	10%	3.1y @23.9	0011	3.1

Who each prospect looks like

48. Michael Hage65% NHL · 2.3y

Morgan Frost 17′#27	47 pk	392 GP
Jordan Kyrou 16′#35	83 pk	488 GP
Max Domi 13′#12	72 pk	815 GP
Brett Howden 16′#27	41 pk	489 GP
Jeremy Bracco 15′#61	never stuck	0 GP

526. John Mooney40% NHL · 3.6y

Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Martin Pospisil 18′#105	31 pk	166 GP
Zach Stepan 12′#112	never stuck	0 GP
Blake Speers 15′#67	never stuck	5 GP
Jack Studnicka 17′#53	14 pk	126 GP

773. Sam Harris23% NHL · 1.3y

Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP
Rourke Chartier 14′#149	never stuck	56 GP
Michael Bunting 14′#117	74 pk	418 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Dmytro Timashov 15′#125	never stuck	45 GP

950. Cedrick Guindon20% NHL · 0.8y

Clark Bishop 14′#127	never stuck	53 GP
JC Lipon 13′#91	never stuck	9 GP
Conner Bleackley 16′#144	never stuck	0 GP
Jonathan Gruden 18′#95	never stuck	16 GP
Radel Fazleev 14′#168	never stuck	0 GP

1260. Logan Sawyer17% NHL · 3.5y

Jonathan Gruden 18′#95	never stuck	16 GP
Yan Pavel Laplante 13′#62	never stuck	0 GP
John Piccinich 14′#103	never stuck	0 GP
Austin Wagner 15′#99	28 pk	178 GP
Deven Sideroff 15′#84	never stuck	0 GP

1361. Luke Mittelstadt17% NHL · 1.3y

Mikael Wikstrand 12′#196	never stuck	0 GP
Jeremy Davies 16′#192	never stuck	23 GP
Zachary Leslie 13′#178	never stuck	0 GP
Dean Stewart 16′#188	never stuck	0 GP
Vojtech Budik 16′#130	never stuck	0 GP

1534. Ben Merrill12% NHL · 3.1y

Anton Zlobin 12′#173	never stuck	0 GP
Maksim Sushko 17′#107	never stuck	2 GP
Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Christopher Paquette 16′#148	never stuck	0 GP

1677. Cooper Cleaves12% NHL · 4.3y

Blake Heinrich 13′#144	never stuck	0 GP
Christian Wolanin 15′#107	never stuck	86 GP
Robin Norell 13′#111	never stuck	0 GP
Ben Thomas 14′#119	never stuck	5 GP
Radim Salda 18′#206	never stuck	0 GP

1795. Maxon Vig10% NHL · 3.1y

Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Brandon Hickey 14′#64	never stuck	0 GP
Niclas Almari 16′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan O'Connell 17′#203	never stuck	0 GP
Blake Siebenaler 14′#77	never stuck	0 GP