Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
453	David Reinbacher	D	AHLPRO	21.8	MTL	23′ #5	0.42	15.2	53%	1y @22.8	01842	18.9
486	Owen Beck	F	AHLPRO	22.5	MTL	22′ #33	0.57	20.5	47%	1.3y @23.8	01837	18.2
718	Florian Xhekaj	F	AHLPRO	22.1	MTL	23′ #101	0.45	16.3	30%	1.5y @23.6	0437	13.2
737	Sasha Pastujov	F	AHLPRO	23.1	MTL	21′ #66	0.8	29	30%	1.5y @24.6	0038	12.9
765	Adam Engström	D	AHLPRO	22.8	MTL	—	0.76	27.3	35%	1.4y @24.2	0037	12.6
795	Filip Mesar	F	AHLPRO	22.6	MTL	22′ #26	0.38	13.7	35%	1y @23.6	0034	12.1
887	Joshua Roy	F	AHLPRO	23	MTL*	21′ #150	0.79	28.5	17%	1.2y @24.2	0036	10.9
951	Tyler Thorpe	F	AHLPRO	21	MTL*	24′ #130	0.24	8.5	23%	2.2y @23.2	0028	10.2
1796	William Trudeau	D	AHLPRO	23.9	MTL*	21′ #113	0.32	11.6	10%	2.2y @26.1	0015	3

Who each prospect looks like

453. David Reinbacher53% NHL · 1y

Olli Juolevi 16′#5	never stuck	41 GP
Haydn Fleury 14′#7	26 pk	345 GP
Cal Foote 17′#14	14 pk	145 GP
Jakub Zboril 15′#13	never stuck	76 GP
Julius Honka 14′#14	never stuck	87 GP

486. Owen Beck47% NHL · 1.3y

Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28	never stuck	1 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP
Nicolas Aube-Kubel 14′#48	34 pk	310 GP
Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36	never stuck	3 GP
Jansen Harkins 15′#47	20 pk	305 GP

718. Florian Xhekaj30% NHL · 1.5y

Gemel Smith 12′#104	never stuck	91 GP
Marián Studenic 17′#143	never stuck	46 GP
Brad Morrison 15′#113	never stuck	0 GP
Anthony Richard 15′#100	never stuck	40 GP
Keegan Kolesar 15′#69	30 pk	439 GP

737. Sasha Pastujov30% NHL · 1.5y

Robin Kovacs 15′#62	never stuck	0 GP
Tanner Richard 12′#71	never stuck	3 GP
Mattias Janmark 13′#79	38 pk	680 GP
Bulat Shafigullin 18′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP

765. Adam Engström35% NHL · 1.4y

Christian Djoos 12′#195	25 pk	155 GP
Colin Miller 12′#151	41 pk	590 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP
Devon Toews 14′#108	71 pk	541 GP

795. Filip Mesar35% NHL · 1y

Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP
Phillip Di Giuseppe 12′#38	34 pk	302 GP
Jansen Harkins 15′#47	20 pk	305 GP
Kody Clark 18′#47	never stuck	0 GP
Yakov Trenin 15′#55	26 pk	457 GP

887. Joshua Roy17% NHL · 1.2y

Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP
Michael Bunting 14′#117	74 pk	418 GP
Otto Somppi 16′#206	never stuck	0 GP
Olle Lycksell 17′#168	never stuck	52 GP
Adam Brooks 16′#92	never stuck	43 GP

951. Tyler Thorpe23% NHL · 2.2y

Drake Rymsha 17′#138	never stuck	1 GP
Jesse Gabrielle 15′#105	never stuck	0 GP
Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Chekhovich 17′#212	never stuck	4 GP
Beck Malenstyn 16′#145	21 pk	262 GP

1796. William Trudeau10% NHL · 2.2y

Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Cole Hults 17′#134	never stuck	0 GP
Wyatte Wylie 18′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Dysin Mayo 14′#133	never stuck	85 GP
Vladislav Yeryomenko 18′#151	never stuck	0 GP