Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
30	Alexander Zharovsky	F	KHLPRO	19.5	MTL	25′ #34	0.71	44.9	70%	3.1y @22.6	183469	35.5
41	Michael Hage	F	NCAA	20.4	MTL	24′ #21	1.33	44.8	65%	2.3y @22.7	163081	33.8
95	Gleb Pugachyov	F	MHL	18.4	MTL	26′ #26	0.73	10.7	57%	3.4y @21.8	03068	29.4
103	Jake Evans	F	WHL	16.9	MTL*	14′ #207	0.12	3	50%	5y @21.9	02483	28.9
263	Filip Eriksson	F	SHLPRO	21.8	MTL*	23′ #165	0.56	27	45%	1.3y @23.1	02455	23.6
338	Bryce Pickford	F	WHL	20.4	MTL*	25′ #81	1.51	37.1	40%	2.5y @22.9	01258	20.1
391	Aatos Koivu	F	LIIGAPRO	20.2	MTL*	24′ #70	0.19	8.5	45%	2.4y @22.6	01159	18.7
413	Owen Beck	F	AHLPRO	22.5	MTL	22′ #33	0.57	20.5	47%	1.3y @23.8	01837	18.2
441	John Mooney	F	NCAA	19.5	MTL*	25′ #113	0.88	29.7	40%	3.6y @23.1	0345	17.1
471	Vinzenz Rohrer	F	NLPRO	21.9	MTL*	22′ #75	0.29	13.2	40%	1.5y @23.4	01237	16
514	Parker Trottier	F	USHL	18.5	MTL*	26′ #189	0.58	11.5	33%	4.3y @22.8	0046	15.1
572	Florian Xhekaj	F	AHLPRO	22.1	MTL	23′ #101	0.45	16.3	30%	1.5y @23.6	0437	13.2
587	Sasha Pastujov	F	AHLPRO	23.1	MTL	21′ #66	0.8	29	30%	1.5y @24.6	0038	12.9
609	Sam Harris	F	NCAAPRO	22.9	MTL*	23′ #133	0.81	27.4	23%	1.3y @24.2	0038	12.6
623	Filip Mesar	F	AHLPRO	22.6	MTL	22′ #26	0.38	13.7	35%	1y @23.6	0034	12.1
664	Wesley Royston	F	OHL	18.7	MTL*	26′ #190	0.32	7.9	23%	5.2y @23.9	0046	11
667	Joshua Roy	F	AHLPRO	23	MTL*	21′ #150	0.79	28.5	17%	1.2y @24.2	0036	10.9
699	Cedrick Guindon	F	NCAAPRO	22.3	MTL*	22′ #127	0.41	13.7	20%	0.8y @23.1	0027	10.2
700	Tyler Thorpe	F	AHLPRO	21	MTL*	24′ #130	0.24	8.5	23%	2.2y @23.2	0028	10.2
874	Logan Sawyer	F	NCAA	20.3	MTL*	24′ #78	0.8	26.9	17%	3.5y @23.8	0030	6.8
1047	Ben Merrill	F	NCAA	20.8	MTL*	24′ #166	0.42	14.3	12%	3.1y @23.9	0020	4.5
1087	Hayden Paupanekis	F	WHL	19.5	MTL*	25′ #69	0.65	16	15%	5y @24.5	0016	4.2

Who each prospect looks like

30. Alexander Zharovsky70% NHL · 3.1y

Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP
Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP

41. Michael Hage65% NHL · 2.3y

Morgan Frost 17′#27	47 pk	392 GP
Jordan Kyrou 16′#35	83 pk	488 GP
Max Domi 13′#12	72 pk	815 GP
Brett Howden 16′#27	41 pk	489 GP
Jeremy Bracco 15′#61	never stuck	0 GP

95. Gleb Pugachyov57% NHL · 3.4y

Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Isac Lundeström 18′#23	30 pk	405 GP
Colin White 15′#21	47 pk	323 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP
Martin Necas 17′#12	105 pk	519 GP

103. Jake Evans50% NHL · 5y

Andrew Copp 13′#104	58 pk	779 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Jared Fiegl 14′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Stefan Matteau 12′#29	never stuck	92 GP
Tyler Moy 15′#175	never stuck	0 GP

263. Filip Eriksson45% NHL · 1.3y

Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Rudolfs Balcers 15′#142	34 pk	170 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP

338. Bryce Pickford40% NHL · 2.5y

Michael Amadio 14′#90	35 pk	522 GP
Stelio Mattheos 17′#73	never stuck	0 GP
Brendan Leipsic 12′#89	33 pk	187 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP
Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP

391. Aatos Koivu45% NHL · 2.4y

Dominic Turgeon 14′#63	never stuck	9 GP
Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Givani Smith 16′#46	12 pk	168 GP
Gabriel Fortier 18′#59	never stuck	11 GP
Brock McGinn 12′#47	31 pk	534 GP

413. Owen Beck47% NHL · 1.3y

Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28	never stuck	1 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP
Nicolas Aube-Kubel 14′#48	34 pk	310 GP
Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36	never stuck	3 GP
Jansen Harkins 15′#47	20 pk	305 GP

441. John Mooney40% NHL · 3.6y

Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Martin Pospisil 18′#105	31 pk	166 GP
Zach Stepan 12′#112	never stuck	0 GP
Blake Speers 15′#67	never stuck	5 GP
Jack Studnicka 17′#53	14 pk	126 GP

471. Vinzenz Rohrer40% NHL · 1.5y

Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63	46 pk	329 GP
Jonathan Gruden 18′#95	never stuck	16 GP
Carsen Twarynski 16′#82	never stuck	22 GP
JC Lipon 13′#91	never stuck	9 GP
Scott Kosmachuk 12′#70	never stuck	8 GP

514. Parker Trottier33% NHL · 4.3y

Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Quentin Shore 13′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP

572. Florian Xhekaj30% NHL · 1.5y

Gemel Smith 12′#104	never stuck	91 GP
Marián Studenic 17′#143	never stuck	46 GP
Brad Morrison 15′#113	never stuck	0 GP
Anthony Richard 15′#100	never stuck	40 GP
Keegan Kolesar 15′#69	30 pk	439 GP