Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
175	Charlie Stramel	F	NCAAPRO	21.8	MIN	23′ #21	1.19	40	60%	1.2y @23	43062	27.4
329	Rieger Lorenz	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	MIN*	22′ #56	0.81	27.4	50%	1y @23.4	02339	21.9
404	Hunter Haight	F	AHLPRO	22.4	MIN	22′ #47	0.59	21.4	50%	1.4y @23.8	01837	20
460	Riley Heidt	F	AHLPRO	21.4	MIN*	23′ #64	0.35	12.7	45%	1.4y @22.8	01555	18.7
469	Servac Petrovsky	F	CZECHIAPRO	22	MIN*	22′ #185	0.42	18	35%	1.7y @23.7	0955	18.4
607	Theodor Hallquisth	D	ALLSVENSKANPRO	19.2	MIN*	25′ #52	0.1	3.1	50%	3.4y @22.6	01631	15.3
632	Aron Kiviharju	D	LIIGAPRO	20.6	MIN*	24′ #122	0.35	15.7	45%	1.8y @22.4	01331	15
692	Justin Kipkie	D	NCAAPRO	21.1	MIN*	25′ #141	0.37	12.5	35%	1.6y @22.7	0743	13.7
709	Rasmus Kumpulainen	F	AHLPRO	21	MIN*	23′ #53	0.1	3.8	35%	1.9y @22.9	0046	13.3
762	Sebastian Soini	D	LIIGAPRO	20.2	MIN*	24′ #140	0.17	7.7	40%	2.2y @22.4	01029	12.7
959	Ryan Healey	D	NCAAPRO	22.3	MIN*	22′ #121	0.35	11.9	33%	2.7y @25	0026	10.1
986	Kalem Parker	D	NCAAPRO	21.9	MIN*	23′ #181	0.33	11.2	28%	2.7y @24.6	0026	9.8
1006	David Špaček	D	AHLPRO	23.5	MIN	—	0.61	22	25%	0.6y @24.1	0031	9.3
1143	Jack Peart	D	AHLPRO	23.3	MIN*	21′ #54	0.25	8.9	20%	1.5y @24.8	0027	7.6
1340	Carson Lambos	D	AHLPRO	23.6	MIN	21′ #26	0.27	9.8	12%	0.5y @24.1	0026	6.1
1367	Viking Gustafsson Nyberg	D	NCAAPRO	22.9	MIN	—	0.29	9.7	17%	2y @24.9	0026	5.8
1831	Aaron Pionk	D	NCAAPRO	23.6	MIN*	23′ #149	0.25	8.4	10%	2.5y @26.1	0010	2.7
1879	Nate Benoit	D	NCAAPRO	23.7	MIN*	21′ #182	0.42	14.1	7%	2.1y @25.8	0010	2.3
1907	Caedan Bankier	F	AHLPRO	23.6	MIN*	21′ #86	0.3	10.9	7%	0.6y @24.2	000	2
1916	Michael Milne	F	AHLPRO	23.9	MIN*	22′ #89	0.16	5.9	5%	1.5y @25.4	000	1.9

Who each prospect looks like

175. Charlie Stramel60% NHL · 1.2y

Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Egor Korshkov 16′#31	never stuck	1 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP

329. Rieger Lorenz50% NHL · 1y

Alexander Volkov 17′#48	never stuck	46 GP
Nicolas Aube-Kubel 14′#48	34 pk	310 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Connor Dewar 18′#92	32 pk	316 GP
Martin Frk 12′#49	30 pk	124 GP

404. Hunter Haight50% NHL · 1.4y

Alexander Volkov 17′#48	never stuck	46 GP
Nicolas Aube-Kubel 14′#48	34 pk	310 GP
Martin Frk 12′#49	30 pk	124 GP
Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36	never stuck	3 GP
Jansen Harkins 15′#47	20 pk	305 GP

460. Riley Heidt45% NHL · 1.4y

Vaclav Karabacek 14′#49	never stuck	0 GP
Carsen Twarynski 16′#82	never stuck	22 GP
Scott Kosmachuk 12′#70	never stuck	8 GP
Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63	46 pk	329 GP
Remi Elie 13′#40	16 pk	107 GP

469. Servac Petrovsky35% NHL · 1.7y

Marián Studenic 17′#143	never stuck	46 GP
Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Sammy Blais 14′#176	53 pk	278 GP
Pavel Koltygin 17′#176	never stuck	0 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP

607. Theodor Hallquisth50% NHL · 3.4y

Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Gabriel Carlsson 15′#29	never stuck	81 GP
Alexander Romanov 18′#38	26 pk	369 GP
Adam Pelech 12′#65	29 pk	642 GP

632. Aron Kiviharju45% NHL · 1.8y

Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Gustav Forsling 14′#126	43 pk	557 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP
Christian Jaros 15′#139	never stuck	94 GP

692. Justin Kipkie35% NHL · 1.6y

Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP

709. Rasmus Kumpulainen35% NHL · 1.9y

Cliff Pu 16′#69	never stuck	0 GP
Alex Schoenborn 14′#72	never stuck	0 GP
Remi Elie 13′#40	16 pk	107 GP
Jesse Gabrielle 15′#105	never stuck	0 GP
Dominic Turgeon 14′#63	never stuck	9 GP

762. Sebastian Soini40% NHL · 2.2y

Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Colton White 15′#97	14 pk	107 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP

959. Ryan Healey33% NHL · 2.7y

Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
William Lagesson 14′#91	11 pk	107 GP
Reilly Walsh 17′#81	never stuck	1 GP

986. Kalem Parker28% NHL · 2.7y

Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Cederholm 13′#145	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Tucker 18′#200	20 pk	159 GP