Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
175	Charlie Stramel	F	NCAAPRO	21.8	MIN	23′ #21	1.19	40	60%	1.2y @23	43062	27.4
329	Rieger Lorenz	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	MIN*	22′ #56	0.81	27.4	50%	1y @23.4	02339	21.9
692	Justin Kipkie	D	NCAAPRO	21.1	MIN*	25′ #141	0.37	12.5	35%	1.6y @22.7	0743	13.7
959	Ryan Healey	D	NCAAPRO	22.3	MIN*	22′ #121	0.35	11.9	33%	2.7y @25	0026	10.1
986	Kalem Parker	D	NCAAPRO	21.9	MIN*	23′ #181	0.33	11.2	28%	2.7y @24.6	0026	9.8
1120	Ryder Ritchie	F	NCAA	20	MIN*	24′ #45	0.47	15.9	20%	3y @23	0025	8.1
1367	Viking Gustafsson Nyberg	D	NCAAPRO	22.9	MIN	—	0.29	9.7	17%	2y @24.9	0026	5.8
1831	Aaron Pionk	D	NCAAPRO	23.6	MIN*	23′ #149	0.25	8.4	10%	2.5y @26.1	0010	2.7
1879	Nate Benoit	D	NCAAPRO	23.7	MIN*	21′ #182	0.42	14.1	7%	2.1y @25.8	0010	2.3

Who each prospect looks like

175. Charlie Stramel60% NHL · 1.2y

Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Egor Korshkov 16′#31	never stuck	1 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP

329. Rieger Lorenz50% NHL · 1y

Alexander Volkov 17′#48	never stuck	46 GP
Nicolas Aube-Kubel 14′#48	34 pk	310 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Connor Dewar 18′#92	32 pk	316 GP
Martin Frk 12′#49	30 pk	124 GP

692. Justin Kipkie35% NHL · 1.6y

Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP

959. Ryan Healey33% NHL · 2.7y

Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
William Lagesson 14′#91	11 pk	107 GP
Reilly Walsh 17′#81	never stuck	1 GP

986. Kalem Parker28% NHL · 2.7y

Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Cederholm 13′#145	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Tucker 18′#200	20 pk	159 GP

1120. Ryder Ritchie20% NHL · 3y

Andrei Altybarmakian 17′#70	never stuck	0 GP
Alexey Lipanov 17′#76	never stuck	0 GP
Adrian Kempe 14′#29	80 pk	711 GP
Vaclav Karabacek 14′#49	never stuck	0 GP
Kasper Bjorkqvist 16′#61	never stuck	6 GP

1367. Viking Gustafsson Nyberg17% NHL · 2y

Dmitry Sinitsyn 12′#183	never stuck	0 GP
Gustav Bouramman 15′#201	never stuck	0 GP
Justin Hache 12′#208	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Tucker 18′#200	20 pk	159 GP
Niclas Almari 16′#151	never stuck	0 GP

1831. Aaron Pionk10% NHL · 2.5y

Colby Williams 15′#173	never stuck	0 GP
Niclas Almari 16′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Sergei Boikov 15′#161	never stuck	0 GP
Gustav Bouramman 15′#201	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Prapavessis 14′#105	never stuck	0 GP

1879. Nate Benoit7% NHL · 2.1y

Zachary Leslie 13′#178	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Bischoff 12′#185	never stuck	4 GP
Vojtech Budik 16′#130	never stuck	0 GP
Matt Roy 15′#194	29 pk	517 GP
Jesper Sellgren 18′#166	never stuck	0 GP