Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
632	Aron Kiviharju	D	LIIGAPRO	20.6	MIN*	24′ #122	0.35	15.7	45%	1.8y @22.4	01331	15
762	Sebastian Soini	D	LIIGAPRO	20.2	MIN*	24′ #140	0.17	7.7	40%	2.2y @22.4	01029	12.7

Who each prospect looks like

632. Aron Kiviharju45% NHL · 1.8y

Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Gustav Forsling 14′#126	43 pk	557 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP
Christian Jaros 15′#139	never stuck	94 GP

762. Sebastian Soini40% NHL · 2.2y

Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Colton White 15′#97	14 pk	107 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP