Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
95	Thomas Vandenberg	F	OHL	17.9	LAK*	26′ #103	0.85	20.8	57%	3.9y @21.8	03068	30.1
187	Henry Brzustewicz	D	OHL	19.5	LAK*	25′ #31	0.92	22.5	68%	2.4y @21.9	82664	26.9
546	Liam Greentree	F	OHL	20.6	LAK*	24′ #26	1.42	35	40%	2.3y @22.9	0641	16.6
888	Jimmy Lombardi	F	OHL	19.5	LAK*	25′ #125	1.11	27.2	25%	4.1y @23.6	0044	10.9
914	Lucas Ambrosio	D	OHL	18.6	LAK*	26′ #223	0.31	7.7	28%	5y @23.6	0029	10.6
1321	Alex Kostov	F	OHL	20.2	LAK*	26′ #177	1.17	28.8	15%	3.4y @23.6	0030	6.3
1406	Jan Chovan	F	OHL	19.6	LAK*	25′ #184	0.92	22.5	12%	3.5y @23.1	0020	5.4
1451	Jared Woolley	F	OHL	20.5	LAK*	24′ #164	0.59	14.6	12%	2.5y @23	0020	5

Who each prospect looks like

95. Thomas Vandenberg57% NHL · 3.9y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP

187. Henry Brzustewicz68% NHL · 2.4y

Rasmus Sandin 18′#29	33 pk	382 GP
Libor Hajek 16′#37	15 pk	110 GP
Chris Bigras 13′#32	never stuck	46 GP
Dennis Cholowski 16′#20	25 pk	173 GP
Thomas Chabot 15′#18	64 pk	569 GP

546. Liam Greentree40% NHL · 2.3y

Brendan Lemieux 14′#31	25 pk	307 GP
Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP
Laurent Dauphin 13′#39	never stuck	94 GP
John Quenneville 14′#30	never stuck	42 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP

888. Jimmy Lombardi25% NHL · 4.1y

Zach Stepan 12′#112	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Milos Roman 18′#122	never stuck	0 GP
Manuel Wiederer 16′#150	never stuck	0 GP
Cooper Marody 15′#158	never stuck	7 GP

914. Lucas Ambrosio28% NHL · 5y

Steven Ruggiero 15′#178	never stuck	0 GP
Ville Rasanen 17′#197	never stuck	0 GP
Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85	44 pk	596 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP

1321. Alex Kostov15% NHL · 3.4y

Jonathan Walker 16′#152	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Vesel 14′#153	never stuck	0 GP
Cameron Darcy 14′#185	never stuck	0 GP
Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185	never stuck	24 GP
Brandon Saigeon 18′#140	never stuck	0 GP

1406. Jan Chovan12% NHL · 3.5y

Edgars Kulda 14′#193	never stuck	0 GP
Jeremiah Addison 15′#207	never stuck	0 GP
Reid Duke 14′#169	never stuck	0 GP
Francis Beauvillier 12′#174	never stuck	0 GP
Brad Morrison 15′#113	never stuck	0 GP

1451. Jared Woolley12% NHL · 2.5y

Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP
Patrick Shea 15′#192	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Zlobin 12′#173	never stuck	0 GP
Markus Soberg 13′#165	never stuck	0 GP