Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 279 | Ryan Conmy | F | NCAAPRO | 21.8 | LAK* | 23′ #182 | 0.77 | 25.9 | 45% | 1.3y @23.1 | 02455 | 23.6 |
| 1248 | Kristian Epperson | F | NCAA | 20.3 | LAK* | 25′ #88 | 0.55 | 18.5 | 15% | 3.4y @23.7 | 0025 | 6.9 |
| 1468 | Brendan McMorrow | F | NCAA | 20.4 | LAK* | 25′ #196 | 0.41 | 13.7 | 10% | 3.5y @23.9 | 0021 | 5 |
| 1536 | Caeden Herrington | D | NCAA | 20.6 | LAK* | 25′ #120 | 0.24 | 7.9 | 15% | 4.2y @24.8 | 0019 | 4.5 |
| 1554 | Jack Sparkes | D | NCAAPRO | 22.8 | LAK* | 22′ #180 | 0.05 | 1.8 | 12% | 3y @25.8 | 0020 | 4.3 |
| 1656 | James Reeder | F | NCAA | 20.9 | LAK* | 24′ #198 | 0.77 | 25.8 | 10% | 2.1y @23 | 0020 | 3.8 |
Who each prospect looks like
279. Ryan Conmy45% NHL · 1.3y
| Connor Brown 12′#156 | 51 pk | 676 GP |
| Alan Quine 13′#166 | 24 pk | 106 GP |
| Rourke Chartier 14′#149 | never stuck | 56 GP |
| Riley Barber 12′#167 | never stuck | 16 GP |
| Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185 | never stuck | 24 GP |
1248. Kristian Epperson15% NHL · 3.4y
| Ben Johnson 12′#90 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Connor Bunnaman 16′#109 | never stuck | 54 GP |
| Steven Hodges 12′#84 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Nathan Noel 16′#113 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jacob Peterson 17′#132 | never stuck | 83 GP |
1468. Brendan McMorrow10% NHL · 3.5y
| Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170 | never stuck | 6 GP |
| Alan Quine 13′#166 | 24 pk | 106 GP |
| Patrick Shea 15′#192 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Pontus Holmberg 18′#156 | 29 pk | 229 GP |
| Gavin Hain 18′#174 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1536. Caeden Herrington15% NHL · 4.2y
| Jan Kostalek 13′#114 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Matthew Berkovitz 14′#123 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Markus Phillips 17′#118 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jacob Golden 17′#147 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Robin Norell 13′#111 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1554. Jack Sparkes12% NHL · 3y
| Dmitriy Zaitsev 16′#207 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Xavier Bernard 18′#110 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jake Dotchin 12′#161 | 26 pk | 103 GP |
| Justin Hache 12′#208 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| John Nyberg 14′#165 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1656. James Reeder10% NHL · 2.1y
| Christopher Brown 14′#151 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Blaine Byron 13′#179 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Mathieu Joseph 15′#120 | 40 pk | 471 GP |
| Nikita Korostelev 15′#185 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Aarne Talvitie 17′#160 | never stuck | 0 GP |