Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
12	Henry Brzustewicz	D	OHL	19.5	LAK*	25′ #31	0.92	22.5	68%	2.4y @21.9	82664	26.9
45	Adam Goljer	D	SLOVAKIAPRO	18.2	LAK*	26′ #49	0.26	7.3	60%	4.4y @22.6	112243	21.3
233	Lucas Ambrosio	D	OHL	18.6	LAK*	26′ #223	0.31	7.7	28%	5y @23.6	0029	10.6
267	Angus Booth	D	AHLPRO	22.3	LAK*	22′ #116	0.3	10.6	33%	2.3y @24.6	0026	9.8
292	Jakub Dvorak	D	AHLPRO	21.2	LAK*	23′ #54	0.16	5.6	35%	1.6y @22.8	0026	9.1
414	Otto Salin	D	AHLPRO	22.5	LAK*	22′ #148	0.12	4.2	20%	3.3y @25.8	0022	6.2
488	Caeden Herrington	D	NCAA	20.6	LAK*	25′ #120	0.24	7.9	15%	4.2y @24.8	0019	4.5
491	Jack Sparkes	D	NCAAPRO	22.8	LAK*	22′ #180	0.05	1.8	12%	3y @25.8	0020	4.3
571	Kirill Kirsanov	D	AHLPRO	23.9	LAK*	21′ #84	0.19	6.9	10%	2.2y @26.1	0010	2.7

Who each prospect looks like

12. Henry Brzustewicz68% NHL · 2.4y

Rasmus Sandin 18′#29	33 pk	382 GP
Libor Hajek 16′#37	15 pk	110 GP
Chris Bigras 13′#32	never stuck	46 GP
Dennis Cholowski 16′#20	25 pk	173 GP
Thomas Chabot 15′#18	64 pk	569 GP

45. Adam Goljer60% NHL · 4.4y

Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Urho Vaakanainen 17′#18	27 pk	221 GP
Gabriel Carlsson 15′#29	never stuck	81 GP
Robert Hagg 13′#41	22 pk	345 GP

233. Lucas Ambrosio28% NHL · 5y

Steven Ruggiero 15′#178	never stuck	0 GP
Ville Rasanen 17′#197	never stuck	0 GP
Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85	44 pk	596 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP

267. Angus Booth33% NHL · 2.3y

Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Connor Hobbs 15′#143	never stuck	0 GP
Frederic Allard 16′#78	never stuck	4 GP
Filip Kral 18′#149	never stuck	2 GP

292. Jakub Dvorak35% NHL · 1.6y

Jonas Siegenthaler 15′#57	22 pk	449 GP
Patrick Sieloff 12′#42	never stuck	2 GP
Gustav Lindstrom 17′#38	18 pk	174 GP
Blake Siebenaler 14′#77	never stuck	0 GP
Robert Hagg 13′#41	22 pk	345 GP

414. Otto Salin20% NHL · 3.3y

Ryan Culkin 12′#124	never stuck	0 GP
Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Dylan Labbe 13′#107	never stuck	0 GP
Petter Hansson 15′#202	never stuck	0 GP
Antti Palojarvi 17′#186	never stuck	0 GP

488. Caeden Herrington15% NHL · 4.2y

Jan Kostalek 13′#114	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Berkovitz 14′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Markus Phillips 17′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Jacob Golden 17′#147	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Norell 13′#111	never stuck	0 GP

491. Jack Sparkes12% NHL · 3y

Dmitriy Zaitsev 16′#207	never stuck	0 GP
Xavier Bernard 18′#110	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Dotchin 12′#161	26 pk	103 GP
Justin Hache 12′#208	never stuck	0 GP
John Nyberg 14′#165	never stuck	0 GP

571. Kirill Kirsanov10% NHL · 2.2y

Parker Wotherspoon 15′#112	31 pk	188 GP
Wyatte Wylie 18′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Nico Gross 18′#101	never stuck	0 GP
Dysin Mayo 14′#133	never stuck	85 GP
Oskari Laaksonen 17′#89	never stuck	0 GP