Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
107	Gracyn Sawchyn	F	AHLPRO	21.6	FLA*	23′ #63	0.66	23.7	68%	1.7y @23.3	183353	29.2
269	Simas Ignatavicius	F	NLPRO	18.8	FLA*	26′ #40	0.25	11.3	57%	3.9y @22.7	01961	24
524	Linus Eriksson	F	SHLPRO	20.4	FLA*	24′ #58	0.16	7.9	42%	2.1y @22.5	01155	17.1
586	Sandis Vilmanis	F	AHLPRO	22.6	FLA*	22′ #157	0.79	28.6	28%	1.1y @23.7	0038	15.7
715	Simon Zether	F	SHLPRO	20.8	FLA*	24′ #129	0.23	10.9	30%	2.2y @23	0037	13.3
736	Stepan Gorbunov	F	KHLPRO	20	FLA*	24′ #169	0.07	4.4	28%	3.1y @23.1	0049	13
780	Hunter St. Martin	F	AHLPRO	21.2	FLA*	24′ #193	0.28	10.2	23%	2y @23.2	0053	12.4
861	Vladislav Lukashevich	D	NCAAPRO	23.2	FLA*	21′ #120	0.64	21.4	33%	1.2y @24.4	0036	11.2
911	Matvei Shuravin	D	KHLPRO	20.4	FLA*	24′ #97	0.05	3	40%	2.4y @22.8	0727	10.7
949	Ludvig Jansson	D	AHLPRO	22.6	FLA*	22′ #125	0.35	12.8	30%	2.3y @24.9	0027	10.2
1077	Marek Alscher	D	AHLPRO	22.4	FLA*	22′ #93	0.21	7.6	28%	2.1y @24.5	0026	8.6
1119	Albert Wikman	D	SHLPRO	21.4	FLA*	23′ #127	0.11	5.3	25%	1.9y @23.3	0022	8.1
1429	Braden Hache	D	AHLPRO	23.2	FLA*	21′ #210	0.15	5.5	17%	2.6y @25.8	0024	5.2
1983	Jakub Kos	F	CZECHIAPRO	23.2	FLA*	21′ #184	0.2	8.5	5%	4.1y @27.3	000	1.3

Who each prospect looks like

107. Gracyn Sawchyn68% NHL · 1.7y

Brendan Leipsic 12′#89	33 pk	187 GP
Michael Amadio 14′#90	35 pk	522 GP
Sven Andrighetto 13′#86	36 pk	216 GP
Kevin Stenlund 15′#58	28 pk	368 GP
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 18′#76	never stuck	1 GP

269. Simas Ignatavicius57% NHL · 3.9y

Marko Dano 13′#27	49 pk	141 GP
Adrian Kempe 14′#29	80 pk	711 GP
Joel Eriksson Ek 15′#20	68 pk	614 GP
Martin Kaut 18′#16	never stuck	56 GP
Brock McGinn 12′#47	31 pk	534 GP

524. Linus Eriksson42% NHL · 2.1y

Dominic Turgeon 14′#63	never stuck	9 GP
Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Raphael Bussieres 12′#46	never stuck	0 GP
Givani Smith 16′#46	12 pk	168 GP
Tyler Bertuzzi 13′#58	75 pk	567 GP

586. Sandis Vilmanis28% NHL · 1.1y

Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP
Rourke Chartier 14′#149	never stuck	56 GP
Mason Appleton 15′#168	37 pk	465 GP
Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP

715. Simon Zether30% NHL · 2.2y

Drake Rymsha 17′#138	never stuck	1 GP
Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Jesse Gabrielle 15′#105	never stuck	0 GP
Colin Smith 12′#192	never stuck	1 GP
Cliff Pu 16′#69	never stuck	0 GP

736. Stepan Gorbunov28% NHL · 3.1y

Daniel Bernhardt 15′#119	never stuck	0 GP
Brandon Gignac 16′#80	never stuck	8 GP
Nikita Popugaev 17′#98	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Blidh 13′#180	never stuck	89 GP
Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136	never stuck	0 GP

780. Hunter St. Martin23% NHL · 2y

Ivan Chekhovich 17′#212	never stuck	4 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Drake Rymsha 17′#138	never stuck	1 GP
Nick Caamano 16′#146	never stuck	36 GP
Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP

861. Vladislav Lukashevich33% NHL · 1.2y

Jacob Moverare 16′#112	13 pk	109 GP
Casey Fitzgerald 16′#86	never stuck	63 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Mikael Wikstrand 12′#196	never stuck	0 GP
Vojtech Budik 16′#130	never stuck	0 GP

911. Matvei Shuravin40% NHL · 2.4y

Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Adam Pelech 12′#65	29 pk	642 GP
Tyler Ganly 13′#156	never stuck	0 GP
Colton White 15′#97	14 pk	107 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP

949. Ludvig Jansson30% NHL · 2.3y

Luc Snuggerud 14′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Linus Hogberg 16′#139	never stuck	5 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Connor Hobbs 15′#143	never stuck	0 GP
William Lagesson 14′#91	11 pk	107 GP

1077. Marek Alscher28% NHL · 2.1y

Jake Walman 14′#82	52 pk	320 GP
Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Dmitri Samorukov 17′#84	never stuck	3 GP
Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Connor Hobbs 15′#143	never stuck	0 GP

1119. Albert Wikman25% NHL · 1.9y

Dylan Labbe 13′#107	never stuck	0 GP
Blake Siebenaler 14′#77	never stuck	0 GP
Antti Palojarvi 17′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Jonas Siegenthaler 15′#57	22 pk	449 GP
Anton Cederholm 13′#145	never stuck	0 GP