Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | Ryder Cali★ | F | OHL | 18 | FLA* | 26′ #48 | 0.77 | 18.8 | 60% | 3.8y @21.8 | 03283 | 33.7 |
| 427 | Cole Zurawski | F | OHL | 18.5 | FLA* | 26′ #181 | 0.73 | 18 | 40% | 4.1y @22.6 | 0052 | 19.5 |
| 1266 | Shamar Moses | F | OHL | 19.3 | FLA* | 25′ #129 | 0.38 | 9.2 | 12% | 5.2y @24.5 | 0029 | 6.7 |
Who each prospect looks like
50. Ryder Cali60% NHL · 3.8y
| Alex Formenton 17′#47 | 33 pk | 109 GP |
| J.T. Compher 13′#35 | 52 pk | 658 GP |
| Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30 | 46 pk | 423 GP |
| Scott Laughton 12′#20 | 45 pk | 745 GP |
| Ivan Morozov 18′#61 | never stuck | 0 GP |
427. Cole Zurawski40% NHL · 4.1y
| Jarrod Maidens 12′#82 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Tyler Motte 13′#121 | 34 pk | 455 GP |
| Luke Johnson 13′#134 | never stuck | 32 GP |
| Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Shane Eiserman 14′#100 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1266. Shamar Moses12% NHL · 5.2y
| Jonny Brodzinski 13′#148 | 31 pk | 264 GP |
| Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63 | 46 pk | 329 GP |
| Jonne Tammela 15′#118 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Mackenzie MacEachern 12′#67 | 16 pk | 131 GP |
| Matthew Deblouw 12′#186 | never stuck | 0 GP |