Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
736	Stepan Gorbunov	F	KHLPRO	20	FLA*	24′ #169	0.07	4.4	28%	3.1y @23.1	0049	13
911	Matvei Shuravin	D	KHLPRO	20.4	FLA*	24′ #97	0.05	3	40%	2.4y @22.8	0727	10.7

Who each prospect looks like

736. Stepan Gorbunov28% NHL · 3.1y

Daniel Bernhardt 15′#119	never stuck	0 GP
Brandon Gignac 16′#80	never stuck	8 GP
Nikita Popugaev 17′#98	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Blidh 13′#180	never stuck	89 GP
Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136	never stuck	0 GP

911. Matvei Shuravin40% NHL · 2.4y

Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Adam Pelech 12′#65	29 pk	642 GP
Tyler Ganly 13′#156	never stuck	0 GP
Colton White 15′#97	14 pk	107 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP