Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
107	Gracyn Sawchyn	F	AHLPRO	21.6	FLA*	23′ #63	0.66	23.7	68%	1.7y @23.3	183353	29.2
586	Sandis Vilmanis	F	AHLPRO	22.6	FLA*	22′ #157	0.79	28.6	28%	1.1y @23.7	0038	15.7
780	Hunter St. Martin	F	AHLPRO	21.2	FLA*	24′ #193	0.28	10.2	23%	2y @23.2	0053	12.4
949	Ludvig Jansson	D	AHLPRO	22.7	FLA	22′ #125	0.35	12.8	30%	2.2y @24.9	0027	10.2
1077	Marek Alscher	D	AHLPRO	22.4	FLA	22′ #93	0.21	7.6	28%	2.1y @24.5	0026	8.6
1429	Braden Hache	D	AHLPRO	23.3	FLA*	21′ #210	0.15	5.5	17%	2.5y @25.8	0024	5.2

Who each prospect looks like

107. Gracyn Sawchyn68% NHL · 1.7y

Brendan Leipsic 12′#89	33 pk	187 GP
Michael Amadio 14′#90	35 pk	522 GP
Sven Andrighetto 13′#86	36 pk	216 GP
Kevin Stenlund 15′#58	28 pk	368 GP
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 18′#76	never stuck	1 GP

586. Sandis Vilmanis28% NHL · 1.1y

Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP
Rourke Chartier 14′#149	never stuck	56 GP
Mason Appleton 15′#168	37 pk	465 GP
Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP

780. Hunter St. Martin23% NHL · 2y

Ivan Chekhovich 17′#212	never stuck	4 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Drake Rymsha 17′#138	never stuck	1 GP
Nick Caamano 16′#146	never stuck	36 GP
Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP

949. Ludvig Jansson30% NHL · 2.2y

Luc Snuggerud 14′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Linus Hogberg 16′#139	never stuck	5 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Connor Hobbs 15′#143	never stuck	0 GP
William Lagesson 14′#91	11 pk	107 GP

1077. Marek Alscher28% NHL · 2.1y

Jake Walman 14′#82	52 pk	320 GP
Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Dmitri Samorukov 17′#84	never stuck	3 GP
Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Connor Hobbs 15′#143	never stuck	0 GP

1429. Braden Hache17% NHL · 2.5y

Michael Brodzinski 13′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Aleksi Makela 13′#182	never stuck	0 GP
Colby Williams 15′#173	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Tyler Lewington 13′#204	never stuck	12 GP