Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | Ryder Cali★ | F | OHL | 18 | FLA* | 26′ #48 | 0.77 | 18.8 | 60% | 3.8y @21.8 | 03283 | 33.7 |
| 97 | Gracyn Sawchyn | F | AHLPRO | 21.6 | FLA* | 23′ #63 | 0.66 | 23.7 | 68% | 1.7y @23.3 | 183353 | 29.2 |
| 254 | Simas Ignatavicius | F | NLPRO | 18.8 | FLA* | 26′ #40 | 0.25 | 11.3 | 57% | 3.9y @22.7 | 01961 | 24 |
| 361 | Cole Zurawski | F | OHL | 18.5 | FLA* | 26′ #181 | 0.73 | 18 | 40% | 4.1y @22.6 | 0052 | 19.5 |
| 440 | Linus Eriksson | F | SHLPRO | 20.4 | FLA* | 24′ #58 | 0.16 | 7.9 | 42% | 2.1y @22.5 | 01155 | 17.1 |
| 483 | Sandis Vilmanis | F | AHLPRO | 22.6 | FLA* | 22′ #157 | 0.79 | 28.6 | 28% | 1.1y @23.7 | 0038 | 15.7 |
| 569 | Simon Zether | F | SHLPRO | 20.8 | FLA* | 24′ #129 | 0.23 | 10.9 | 30% | 2.2y @23 | 0037 | 13.3 |
| 586 | Stepan Gorbunov | F | KHLPRO | 20 | FLA* | 24′ #169 | 0.07 | 4.4 | 28% | 3.1y @23.1 | 0049 | 13 |
| 615 | Hunter St. Martin | F | AHLPRO | 21.2 | FLA* | 24′ #193 | 0.28 | 10.2 | 23% | 2y @23.2 | 0053 | 12.4 |
| 879 | Shamar Moses | F | OHL | 19.3 | FLA* | 25′ #129 | 0.38 | 9.2 | 12% | 5.2y @24.5 | 0029 | 6.7 |
| 1366 | Jakub Kos | F | CZECHIAPRO | 23.2 | FLA* | 21′ #184 | 0.2 | 8.5 | 5% | 4.1y @27.3 | 000 | 1.3 |
Who each prospect looks like
43. Ryder Cali60% NHL · 3.8y
| Alex Formenton 17′#47 | 33 pk | 109 GP |
| J.T. Compher 13′#35 | 52 pk | 658 GP |
| Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30 | 46 pk | 423 GP |
| Scott Laughton 12′#20 | 45 pk | 745 GP |
| Ivan Morozov 18′#61 | never stuck | 0 GP |
97. Gracyn Sawchyn68% NHL · 1.7y
| Brendan Leipsic 12′#89 | 33 pk | 187 GP |
| Michael Amadio 14′#90 | 35 pk | 522 GP |
| Sven Andrighetto 13′#86 | 36 pk | 216 GP |
| Kevin Stenlund 15′#58 | 28 pk | 368 GP |
| Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 18′#76 | never stuck | 1 GP |
254. Simas Ignatavicius57% NHL · 3.9y
| Marko Dano 13′#27 | 49 pk | 141 GP |
| Adrian Kempe 14′#29 | 80 pk | 711 GP |
| Joel Eriksson Ek 15′#20 | 68 pk | 614 GP |
| Martin Kaut 18′#16 | never stuck | 56 GP |
| Brock McGinn 12′#47 | 31 pk | 534 GP |
361. Cole Zurawski40% NHL · 4.1y
| Jarrod Maidens 12′#82 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Tyler Motte 13′#121 | 34 pk | 455 GP |
| Luke Johnson 13′#134 | never stuck | 32 GP |
| Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Shane Eiserman 14′#100 | never stuck | 0 GP |
440. Linus Eriksson42% NHL · 2.1y
| Dominic Turgeon 14′#63 | never stuck | 9 GP |
| Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Raphael Bussieres 12′#46 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Givani Smith 16′#46 | 12 pk | 168 GP |
| Tyler Bertuzzi 13′#58 | 75 pk | 567 GP |
483. Sandis Vilmanis28% NHL · 1.1y
| Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170 | never stuck | 6 GP |
| Rourke Chartier 14′#149 | never stuck | 56 GP |
| Mason Appleton 15′#168 | 37 pk | 465 GP |
| Jacob Peterson 17′#132 | never stuck | 83 GP |
| Mason Shaw 17′#97 | never stuck | 82 GP |
569. Simon Zether30% NHL · 2.2y
| Drake Rymsha 17′#138 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jesse Gabrielle 15′#105 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Colin Smith 12′#192 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Cliff Pu 16′#69 | never stuck | 0 GP |
586. Stepan Gorbunov28% NHL · 3.1y
| Daniel Bernhardt 15′#119 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Brandon Gignac 16′#80 | never stuck | 8 GP |
| Nikita Popugaev 17′#98 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Anton Blidh 13′#180 | never stuck | 89 GP |
| Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136 | never stuck | 0 GP |
615. Hunter St. Martin23% NHL · 2y
| Ivan Chekhovich 17′#212 | never stuck | 4 GP |
| Ben Jones 17′#189 | never stuck | 56 GP |
| Drake Rymsha 17′#138 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Nick Caamano 16′#146 | never stuck | 36 GP |
| Cole Ully 13′#131 | never stuck | 0 GP |
879. Shamar Moses12% NHL · 5.2y
| Jonny Brodzinski 13′#148 | 31 pk | 264 GP |
| Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63 | 46 pk | 329 GP |
| Jonne Tammela 15′#118 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Mackenzie MacEachern 12′#67 | 16 pk | 131 GP |
| Matthew Deblouw 12′#186 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1366. Jakub Kos5% NHL · 4.1y
| Michael Pezzetta 16′#160 | 20 pk | 209 GP |
| Gregory Chase 13′#188 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Mitchell Hoelscher 18′#172 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Ryan Olsen 12′#160 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Hampus Melen 13′#199 | never stuck | 0 GP |