Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
222	Rudolfs Berzkalns	F	USHL	18.5	EDM*	26′ #58	0.52	10.2	47%	3.5y @22	0383	25.8
493	Caden Harvey	F	OHL	18.5	EDM*	26′ #180	0.5	12.3	40%	4.1y @22.6	0047	17.8
609	Sam O'Reilly	F	OHL	20.4	EDM*	24′ #32	1.18	29	38%	3.3y @23.7	0436	15.2
725	Andrew Robinson	D	OHL	18.6	EDM*	26′ #133	0.38	9.4	35%	4.3y @22.9	0844	13.1
727	David Lewandowski	F	WHL	19.5	EDM*	25′ #117	1.14	28.1	33%	3.6y @23.1	0041	13.1
776	Tommy Lafreniere	F	WHL	19.6	EDM*	25′ #83	1.15	28.3	25%	3.5y @23.1	0041	12.5
1057	Asher Barnett	D	NCAA	19.3	EDM*	25′ #131	0.45	15.1	23%	3.5y @22.8	0029	8.8
1426	Bauer Berry	D	NCAA	20.8	EDM*	24′ #218	0.38	12.7	12%	3.1y @23.9	0026	5.3
1572	Aidan Park	F	NCAA	20.6	EDM*	25′ #223	0.4	13.4	12%	3.3y @23.9	0020	4.3
1633	William Nicholl	F	OHL	20.2	EDM*	24′ #196	0.81	20	7%	3.7y @23.9	0020	3.9

Who each prospect looks like

222. Rudolfs Berzkalns47% NHL · 3.5y

Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP

493. Caden Harvey40% NHL · 4.1y

Matthew Deblouw 12′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Tyler Moy 15′#175	never stuck	0 GP

609. Sam O'Reilly38% NHL · 3.3y

Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Laurent Dauphin 13′#39	never stuck	94 GP
John Quenneville 14′#30	never stuck	42 GP
Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28	never stuck	1 GP
Nicolas Aube-Kubel 14′#48	34 pk	310 GP

725. Andrew Robinson35% NHL · 4.3y

Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP
Michael Brodzinski 13′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP

727. David Lewandowski33% NHL · 3.6y

Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Zach Stepan 12′#112	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Blake Speers 15′#67	never stuck	5 GP
Martin Pospisil 18′#105	31 pk	166 GP

776. Tommy Lafreniere25% NHL · 3.5y

Aleksi Saarela 15′#89	never stuck	9 GP
Zach Stepan 12′#112	never stuck	0 GP
Scott Kosmachuk 12′#70	never stuck	8 GP
Tyler Madden 18′#68	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Steenbergen 17′#128	never stuck	0 GP

1057. Asher Barnett23% NHL · 3.5y

Connor Carrick 12′#137	29 pk	242 GP
Matt Benning 12′#175	26 pk	465 GP
Jeff Taylor 14′#203	never stuck	0 GP
Zachary Leslie 13′#178	never stuck	0 GP
Brett Kulak 12′#105	25 pk	663 GP

1426. Bauer Berry12% NHL · 3.1y

Gianluca Curcuruto 12′#182	never stuck	0 GP
Cole Candella 16′#140	never stuck	0 GP
Olivier Leblanc 14′#197	never stuck	0 GP
Blake Heinrich 13′#144	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Hellickson 17′#214	never stuck	0 GP

1572. Aidan Park12% NHL · 3.3y

Anton Zlobin 12′#173	never stuck	0 GP
Christopher Paquette 16′#148	never stuck	0 GP
Maksim Sushko 17′#107	never stuck	2 GP
Miguel Fidler 14′#143	never stuck	0 GP
Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP

1633. William Nicholl7% NHL · 3.7y

Filip Sveningsson 17′#202	never stuck	0 GP
Linus Olund 17′#155	never stuck	0 GP
Sam Hentges 18′#210	never stuck	0 GP
Graham McPhee 16′#149	never stuck	0 GP
Andrei Svetlakov 17′#178	never stuck	0 GP