Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 493 | Caden Harvey | F | OHL | 18.5 | EDM* | 26′ #180 | 0.5 | 12.3 | 40% | 4.1y @22.6 | 0047 | 17.8 |
| 609 | Sam O'Reilly | F | OHL | 20.4 | EDM* | 24′ #32 | 1.18 | 29 | 38% | 3.3y @23.7 | 0436 | 15.2 |
| 725 | Andrew Robinson | D | OHL | 18.6 | EDM* | 26′ #133 | 0.38 | 9.4 | 35% | 4.3y @22.9 | 0844 | 13.1 |
| 1633 | William Nicholl | F | OHL | 20.2 | EDM* | 24′ #196 | 0.81 | 20 | 7% | 3.7y @23.9 | 0020 | 3.9 |
Who each prospect looks like
493. Caden Harvey40% NHL · 4.1y
| Matthew Deblouw 12′#186 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Shane Eiserman 14′#100 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Luke Johnson 13′#134 | never stuck | 32 GP |
| Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Tyler Moy 15′#175 | never stuck | 0 GP |
609. Sam O'Reilly38% NHL · 3.3y
| Tyler Benson 16′#32 | never stuck | 38 GP |
| Laurent Dauphin 13′#39 | never stuck | 94 GP |
| John Quenneville 14′#30 | never stuck | 42 GP |
| Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel 14′#48 | 34 pk | 310 GP |
725. Andrew Robinson35% NHL · 4.3y
| Connor Clifton 13′#133 | 24 pk | 434 GP |
| Brian Cooper 12′#127 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Will Butcher 13′#123 | 45 pk | 275 GP |
| Michael Brodzinski 13′#141 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Gage Ausmus 13′#151 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1633. William Nicholl7% NHL · 3.7y
| Filip Sveningsson 17′#202 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Linus Olund 17′#155 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Sam Hentges 18′#210 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Graham McPhee 16′#149 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Andrei Svetlakov 17′#178 | never stuck | 0 GP |