Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 575 | Reid Schaefer | F | AHLPRO | 22.9 | EDM* | 22′ #32 | 0.85 | 30.6 | 35% | 1.6y @24.5 | 0039 | 15.8 |
| 799 | Xavier Bourgault | F | AHLPRO | 23.8 | EDM* | 21′ #22 | 0.81 | 29.4 | 25% | 0.7y @24.5 | 0038 | 12 |
| 890 | Beau Akey | D | AHLPRO | 21.5 | EDM* | 23′ #56 | 0.24 | 8.6 | 40% | 1.3y @22.8 | 0429 | 10.8 |
| 1176 | Connor Clattenburg | F | AHLPRO | 21.3 | EDM* | 24′ #160 | 0.12 | 4.5 | 15% | 2.1y @23.4 | 0025 | 7.3 |
| 1201 | Shane Lachance | F | AHLPRO | 23 | EDM* | 21′ #186 | 0.4 | 14.5 | 12% | 0.9y @23.9 | 0025 | 7.1 |
| 1249 | Viljami Marjala | F | AHLPRO | 23.6 | EDM | 21′ #159 | 0.83 | 30.1 | 15% | 1.2y @24.8 | 0036 | 6.8 |
| 1771 | Maximus Wanner | D | AHLPRO | 23.4 | EDM* | 21′ #212 | 0.1 | 3.7 | 12% | 2.7y @26.1 | 0015 | 3.1 |
| 1898 | Matvey Petrov | F | AHLPRO | 23.4 | EDM* | 21′ #180 | 0.32 | 11.4 | 7% | 4y @27.4 | 000 | 2.1 |
| 1986 | Matt Copponi | F | AHLPRO | 23.2 | EDM* | 23′ #216 | 0.1 | 3.7 | 5% | 4.1y @27.3 | 000 | 1.3 |
| 2000 | Jake Chiasson | F | AHLPRO | 23.2 | EDM* | 21′ #116 | 0.05 | 1.8 | 5% | 0.7y @23.9 | 000 | 1.1 |
Who each prospect looks like
575. Reid Schaefer35% NHL · 1.6y
| Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Martin Frk 12′#49 | 30 pk | 124 GP |
| Jonatan Berggren 18′#33 | 36 pk | 205 GP |
| Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36 | never stuck | 3 GP |
| Kirill Marchenko 18′#49 | 77 pk | 292 GP |
799. Xavier Bourgault25% NHL · 0.7y
| Dominik Bokk 18′#25 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Noah Rod 14′#53 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Teddy Blueger 12′#52 | 42 pk | 453 GP |
| Robin Kovacs 15′#62 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Kasper Bjorkqvist 16′#61 | never stuck | 6 GP |
890. Beau Akey40% NHL · 1.3y
| Roland McKeown 14′#50 | never stuck | 16 GP |
| Guillaume Brisebois 15′#66 | never stuck | 30 GP |
| Matthew Spencer 15′#44 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Colton White 15′#97 | 14 pk | 107 GP |
| Josh Jacobs 14′#41 | never stuck | 3 GP |
1176. Connor Clattenburg15% NHL · 2.1y
| Ben Johnson 12′#90 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Steven Hodges 12′#84 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Anton Blidh 13′#180 | never stuck | 89 GP |
| Drake Rymsha 17′#138 | never stuck | 1 GP |
1201. Shane Lachance12% NHL · 0.9y
| Pavel Koltygin 17′#176 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Joel Vermin 13′#186 | never stuck | 24 GP |
| Jonny Brodzinski 13′#148 | 31 pk | 264 GP |
| Cameron Hughes 15′#165 | never stuck | 5 GP |
| Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1249. Viljami Marjala15% NHL · 1.2y
| Glenn Gawdin 15′#116 | never stuck | 13 GP |
| Liam Kirk 18′#189 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Parker Foo 17′#144 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Lukas Jasek 15′#174 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Otto Somppi 16′#206 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1771. Maximus Wanner12% NHL · 2.7y
| Aleksi Makela 13′#182 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Michael Brodzinski 13′#141 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Petter Hansson 15′#202 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Tyler Lewington 13′#204 | never stuck | 12 GP |
| Connor Clifton 13′#133 | 24 pk | 434 GP |
1898. Matvey Petrov7% NHL · 4y
| Reid Duke 14′#169 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Michael Pezzetta 16′#160 | 20 pk | 209 GP |
| Gregory Chase 13′#188 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jeremy Grégoire 13′#176 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Daniel Walcott 14′#140 | never stuck | 1 GP |
1986. Matt Copponi5% NHL · 4.1y
| Ryan Olsen 12′#160 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Graham Black 12′#135 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Mitchell Hoelscher 18′#172 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Pavel Shen 18′#212 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Hampus Melen 13′#199 | never stuck | 0 GP |
2000. Jake Chiasson5% NHL · 0.7y
| Jack Badini 17′#91 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Blake McLaughlin 18′#79 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Lenni Killinen 18′#104 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Curtis Hall 18′#119 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jermaine Loewen 18′#199 | never stuck | 0 GP |