Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 210 | Rudolfs Berzkalns | F | USHL | 18.5 | EDM* | 26′ #58 | 0.52 | 10.2 | 47% | 3.5y @22 | 0383 | 25.8 |
| 417 | Caden Harvey | F | OHL | 18.5 | EDM* | 26′ #180 | 0.5 | 12.3 | 40% | 4.1y @22.6 | 0047 | 17.8 |
| 476 | Reid Schaefer | F | AHLPRO | 22.9 | EDM* | 22′ #32 | 0.85 | 30.6 | 35% | 1.6y @24.5 | 0039 | 15.8 |
| 501 | Sam O'Reilly | F | OHL | 20.4 | EDM* | 24′ #32 | 1.18 | 29 | 38% | 3.3y @23.7 | 0436 | 15.2 |
| 579 | David Lewandowski | F | WHL | 19.5 | EDM* | 25′ #117 | 1.14 | 28.1 | 33% | 3.6y @23.1 | 0041 | 13.1 |
| 611 | Tommy Lafreniere | F | WHL | 19.6 | EDM* | 25′ #83 | 1.15 | 28.3 | 25% | 3.5y @23.1 | 0041 | 12.5 |
| 613 | Dalyn Wakely | F | NCAAPRO | 22.5 | EDM* | 24′ #192 | 0.54 | 18.3 | 20% | 1.2y @23.7 | 0036 | 12.5 |
| 626 | Xavier Bourgault | F | AHLPRO | 23.8 | EDM* | 21′ #22 | 0.81 | 29.4 | 25% | 0.7y @24.5 | 0038 | 12 |
| 815 | Connor Clattenburg | F | AHLPRO | 21.3 | EDM* | 24′ #160 | 0.12 | 4.5 | 15% | 2.1y @23.4 | 0025 | 7.3 |
| 832 | Shane Lachance | F | AHLPRO | 23 | EDM* | 21′ #186 | 0.4 | 14.5 | 12% | 0.9y @23.9 | 0025 | 7.1 |
| 867 | Viljami Marjala | F | AHLPRO | 23.6 | EDM | 21′ #159 | 0.83 | 30.1 | 15% | 1.2y @24.8 | 0036 | 6.8 |
| 1078 | Aidan Park | F | NCAA | 20.6 | EDM* | 25′ #223 | 0.4 | 13.4 | 12% | 3.3y @23.9 | 0020 | 4.3 |
| 1117 | William Nicholl | F | OHL | 20.2 | EDM* | 24′ #196 | 0.81 | 20 | 7% | 3.7y @23.9 | 0020 | 3.9 |
| 1303 | Matvey Petrov | F | AHLPRO | 23.4 | EDM* | 21′ #180 | 0.32 | 11.4 | 7% | 4y @27.4 | 000 | 2.1 |
| 1369 | Matt Copponi | F | AHLPRO | 23.2 | EDM* | 23′ #216 | 0.1 | 3.7 | 5% | 4.1y @27.3 | 000 | 1.3 |
| 1380 | Jake Chiasson | F | AHLPRO | 23.2 | EDM* | 21′ #116 | 0.05 | 1.8 | 5% | 0.7y @23.9 | 000 | 1.1 |
Who each prospect looks like
210. Rudolfs Berzkalns47% NHL · 3.5y
| Ivan Morozov 18′#61 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Tyler Motte 13′#121 | 34 pk | 455 GP |
| Jarrod Maidens 12′#82 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Shane Eiserman 14′#100 | never stuck | 0 GP |
417. Caden Harvey40% NHL · 4.1y
| Matthew Deblouw 12′#186 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Shane Eiserman 14′#100 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Luke Johnson 13′#134 | never stuck | 32 GP |
| Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Tyler Moy 15′#175 | never stuck | 0 GP |
476. Reid Schaefer35% NHL · 1.6y
| Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Martin Frk 12′#49 | 30 pk | 124 GP |
| Jonatan Berggren 18′#33 | 36 pk | 205 GP |
| Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36 | never stuck | 3 GP |
| Kirill Marchenko 18′#49 | 77 pk | 292 GP |
501. Sam O'Reilly38% NHL · 3.3y
| Tyler Benson 16′#32 | never stuck | 38 GP |
| Laurent Dauphin 13′#39 | never stuck | 94 GP |
| John Quenneville 14′#30 | never stuck | 42 GP |
| Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel 14′#48 | 34 pk | 310 GP |
579. David Lewandowski33% NHL · 3.6y
| Allan McShane 18′#97 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Zach Stepan 12′#112 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Connor Brown 12′#156 | 51 pk | 676 GP |
| Blake Speers 15′#67 | never stuck | 5 GP |
| Martin Pospisil 18′#105 | 31 pk | 166 GP |
611. Tommy Lafreniere25% NHL · 3.5y
| Aleksi Saarela 15′#89 | never stuck | 9 GP |
| Zach Stepan 12′#112 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Scott Kosmachuk 12′#70 | never stuck | 8 GP |
| Tyler Madden 18′#68 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Tyler Steenbergen 17′#128 | never stuck | 0 GP |
613. Dalyn Wakely20% NHL · 1.2y
| Joel Vermin 13′#186 | never stuck | 24 GP |
| Pavel Koltygin 17′#176 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby 16′#147 | never stuck | 99 GP |
| Ryan McGregor 17′#172 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Cameron Hughes 15′#165 | never stuck | 5 GP |
626. Xavier Bourgault25% NHL · 0.7y
| Dominik Bokk 18′#25 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Noah Rod 14′#53 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Teddy Blueger 12′#52 | 42 pk | 453 GP |
| Robin Kovacs 15′#62 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Kasper Bjorkqvist 16′#61 | never stuck | 6 GP |
815. Connor Clattenburg15% NHL · 2.1y
| Ben Johnson 12′#90 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Steven Hodges 12′#84 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Anton Blidh 13′#180 | never stuck | 89 GP |
| Drake Rymsha 17′#138 | never stuck | 1 GP |
832. Shane Lachance12% NHL · 0.9y
| Pavel Koltygin 17′#176 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Joel Vermin 13′#186 | never stuck | 24 GP |
| Jonny Brodzinski 13′#148 | 31 pk | 264 GP |
| Cameron Hughes 15′#165 | never stuck | 5 GP |
| Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171 | never stuck | 0 GP |
867. Viljami Marjala15% NHL · 1.2y
| Glenn Gawdin 15′#116 | never stuck | 13 GP |
| Liam Kirk 18′#189 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Parker Foo 17′#144 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Lukas Jasek 15′#174 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Otto Somppi 16′#206 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1078. Aidan Park12% NHL · 3.3y
| Anton Zlobin 12′#173 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Christopher Paquette 16′#148 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Maksim Sushko 17′#107 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Miguel Fidler 14′#143 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Cole Ully 13′#131 | never stuck | 0 GP |