Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
19	Carter Bear★	F	WHL	19.8	DET	25′ #13	1.45	35.7	75%	1.5y @21.3	304181	44.8
45	Eddie Genborg	F	SHLPRO	19.3	DET*	25′ #44	0.58	28.1	70%	3.2y @22.5	183365	34
75	Max Plante	F	NCAA	20.5	DET	24′ #47	1.3	43.7	60%	2.3y @22.8	03078	31.5
101	Michael Brandsegg-Nygård	F	AHLPRO	20.9	DET*	24′ #15	0.73	26.5	62%	1.7y @22.6	92965	29.6
109	Victor Plante	F	USHL	18.4	DET*	26′ #47	0.9	17.7	57%	3.5y @21.9	02962	29.2
183	Adam Levac	F	OHL	18.1	DET*	26′ #108	0.73	18	50%	3.8y @21.9	02483	27.1
250	Noah Dower Nilsson	F	SHLPRO	21.3	DET*	23′ #73	0.33	16.1	53%	1.5y @22.8	02061	24.6
380	Beckham Edwards	F	OHL	18.6	DET*	26′ #143	0.7	17.3	42%	3.8y @22.4	0052	20.6
402	Dylan James	F	NCAAPRO	22.9	DET*	22′ #40	0.8	26.9	45%	1.1y @24	02042	20
503	Dmitri Buchelnikov	F	KHLPRO	23	DET*	22′ #52	0.57	35.9	33%	1.3y @24.3	0064	17.5
564	Charlie Forslund	F	ALLSVENSKANPRO	20.3	DET*	24′ #176	0.32	10	33%	2.3y @22.6	0355	16.2
571	Anton Johansson	D	SHLPRO	22.2	DET*	22′ #105	0.4	19.6	38%	1.8y @24	01344	15.9
629	Ondrej Becher	F	AHLPRO	22.5	DET*	24′ #80	0.47	16.8	35%	1.1y @23.6	01237	15
703	Larry Keenan	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	DET*	23′ #117	0.53	17.7	38%	1.4y @22.8	01131	13.4
786	Andrew Gibson	D	AHLPRO	21.5	DET*	23′ #42	0.18	6.6	45%	1.3y @22.8	01129	12.3
792	Brady Cleveland	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	DET*	23′ #47	0.05	1.7	40%	1.4y @22.8	01129	12.2
851	Liam Dower Nilsson	F	ALLSVENSKANPRO	23.4	DET*	21′ #134	1.12	34.8	15%	1.2y @24.6	0037	11.4
972	Nikita Tyurin	D	MHL	19.1	DET*	25′ #140	0.6	8.9	25%	4y @23.1	0029	10
1020	Fisher Scott	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	DET*	24′ #208	0.39	13.1	28%	2.3y @24.1	0026	9.2
1068	Will Murphy	D	LHJMQ	19	DET*	25′ #172	0.21	4.8	23%	4y @23	0029	8.7
1075	Jack Phelan	D	NCAAPRO	22.2	DET*	23′ #137	0.24	8.2	28%	2.4y @24.6	0026	8.6
1167	Grayden Robertson-Palmer	F	LHJMQ	19	DET*	25′ #204	0.2	4.6	15%	5.2y @24.2	0031	7.5
1174	Owen Mehlenbacher	F	NCAAPRO	22.6	DET*	22′ #201	0.28	9.5	12%	0.6y @23.2	0025	7.3
1289	Kevin Bicker	F	DELPRO	21.6	DET*	23′ #147	0.19	6.6	12%	1.6y @23.2	0023	6.5
1371	Cooper Moore	F	WHL	20.4	DET*	19′ #128	0.59	14.5	12%	2.6y @23	0022	5.8
1380	Chase Stillman	F	AHLPRO	23.4	DET	21′ #29	0.38	13.5	12%	1.1y @24.5	0023	5.7
1441	Shai Buium	D	AHLPRO	23.4	DET	21′ #36	0.39	14	12%	0.3y @23.7	0017	5.1
1750	Brent Solomon	F	USHL	19.6	DET*	25′ #109	0.98	19.3	10%	3.5y @23.1	000	3.3
1751	Oscar Plandowski	D	NCAAPRO	23.3	DET*	21′ #155	0.07	2.2	12%	2.6y @25.9	0016	3.2
1970	John Whipple	D	NCAA	20.6	DET*	24′ #144	0.06	1.9	7%	3.8y @24.4	000	1.5
1972	Redmond Savage	F	AHLPRO	23.3	DET*	21′ #114	0.21	7.5	5%	4y @27.3	000	1.4

Who each prospect looks like

19. Carter Bear75% NHL · 1.5y

Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Luke Kunin 16′#15	41 pk	496 GP
Kerby Rychel 13′#19	never stuck	43 GP
Timo Meier 15′#9	81 pk	698 GP
Nick Suzuki 17′#13	101 pk	537 GP

45. Eddie Genborg70% NHL · 3.2y

Vladislav Kamenev 14′#42	never stuck	66 GP
Bo Groulx 18′#54	never stuck	78 GP
Adrian Kempe 14′#29	80 pk	711 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP

75. Max Plante60% NHL · 2.3y

Brayden Point 14′#79	95 pk	720 GP
Vitaly Abramov 16′#65	never stuck	5 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP
Jeremy Bracco 15′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Jordan Kyrou 16′#35	83 pk	488 GP

101. Michael Brandsegg-Nygård62% NHL · 1.7y

Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Grigori Denisenko 18′#15	never stuck	33 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP

109. Victor Plante57% NHL · 3.5y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP

183. Adam Levac50% NHL · 3.8y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP

250. Noah Dower Nilsson53% NHL · 1.5y

Nick Baptiste 13′#69	never stuck	47 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Scott Kosmachuk 12′#70	never stuck	8 GP
Vaclav Karabacek 14′#49	never stuck	0 GP
MacKenzie Entwistle 17′#69	18 pk	193 GP

380. Beckham Edwards42% NHL · 3.8y

Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP

402. Dylan James45% NHL · 1.1y

Martin Frk 12′#49	30 pk	124 GP
Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36	never stuck	3 GP
Pontus Aberg 12′#37	42 pk	132 GP
Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28	never stuck	1 GP
Alexander Volkov 17′#48	never stuck	46 GP

503. Dmitri Buchelnikov33% NHL · 1.3y

Taylor Raddysh 16′#58	39 pk	373 GP
Adam Mascherin 18′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Mattias Janmark 13′#79	38 pk	680 GP
Kirill Marchenko 18′#49	77 pk	292 GP
Boris Katchouk 16′#44	23 pk	179 GP

564. Charlie Forslund33% NHL · 2.3y

Maksim Sushko 17′#107	never stuck	2 GP
Beck Malenstyn 16′#145	21 pk	262 GP
Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Nick Caamano 16′#146	never stuck	36 GP
Austin Wagner 15′#99	28 pk	178 GP

571. Anton Johansson38% NHL · 1.8y

Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Reilly Walsh 17′#81	never stuck	1 GP
Andrei Mironov 15′#101	never stuck	10 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP