Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
19	Carter Bear★	F	WHL	19.8	DET	25′ #13	1.45	35.7	75%	1.5y @21.3	304181	44.8
75	Max Plante	F	NCAA	20.5	DET	24′ #47	1.3	43.7	60%	2.3y @22.8	03078	31.5
109	Victor Plante	F	USHL	18.4	DET*	26′ #47	0.9	17.7	57%	3.5y @21.9	02962	29.2
183	Adam Levac	F	OHL	18.1	DET*	26′ #108	0.73	18	50%	3.8y @21.9	02483	27.1
380	Beckham Edwards	F	OHL	18.6	DET*	26′ #143	0.7	17.3	42%	3.8y @22.4	0052	20.6
972	Nikita Tyurin	D	MHL	19.1	DET*	25′ #140	0.6	8.9	25%	4y @23.1	0029	10
1068	Will Murphy	D	LHJMQ	19	DET*	25′ #172	0.21	4.8	23%	4y @23	0029	8.7
1167	Grayden Robertson-Palmer	F	LHJMQ	19	DET*	25′ #204	0.2	4.6	15%	5.2y @24.2	0031	7.5
1371	Cooper Moore	F	WHL	20.4	DET*	19′ #128	0.59	14.5	12%	2.6y @23	0022	5.8
1750	Brent Solomon	F	USHL	19.6	DET*	25′ #109	0.98	19.3	10%	3.5y @23.1	000	3.3
1970	John Whipple	D	NCAA	20.6	DET*	24′ #144	0.06	1.9	7%	3.8y @24.4	000	1.5

Who each prospect looks like

19. Carter Bear75% NHL · 1.5y

Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Luke Kunin 16′#15	41 pk	496 GP
Kerby Rychel 13′#19	never stuck	43 GP
Timo Meier 15′#9	81 pk	698 GP
Nick Suzuki 17′#13	101 pk	537 GP

75. Max Plante60% NHL · 2.3y

Brayden Point 14′#79	95 pk	720 GP
Vitaly Abramov 16′#65	never stuck	5 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP
Jeremy Bracco 15′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Jordan Kyrou 16′#35	83 pk	488 GP

109. Victor Plante57% NHL · 3.5y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP

183. Adam Levac50% NHL · 3.8y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP

380. Beckham Edwards42% NHL · 3.8y

Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP

972. Nikita Tyurin25% NHL · 4y

Jeff Taylor 14′#203	never stuck	0 GP
Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140	never stuck	0 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Jaccob Slavin 12′#120	44 pk	784 GP
Ville Rasanen 17′#197	never stuck	0 GP

1068. Will Murphy23% NHL · 4y

John Gilmour 13′#198	never stuck	37 GP
Matt Benning 12′#175	26 pk	465 GP
Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140	never stuck	0 GP
Matt Roy 15′#194	29 pk	517 GP
Tyler Nanne 14′#142	never stuck	0 GP

1167. Grayden Robertson-Palmer15% NHL · 5.2y

Lukas Jasek 15′#174	never stuck	0 GP
Jonny Brodzinski 13′#148	31 pk	264 GP
Matthew Deblouw 12′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Dominik Kubalik 13′#191	56 pk	357 GP
Brendan Woods 12′#129	never stuck	7 GP

1371. Cooper Moore12% NHL · 2.6y

Aapeli Rasanen 16′#153	never stuck	0 GP
Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP
Max Willman 14′#121	never stuck	68 GP
Gavin Hain 18′#174	never stuck	0 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP

1750. Brent Solomon10% NHL · 3.5y

Brad Morrison 15′#113	never stuck	0 GP
Alexander Delnov 12′#114	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Bradley 15′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Jonathan Ang 16′#94	never stuck	0 GP
Tanner Kaspick 16′#119	never stuck	0 GP

1970. John Whipple7% NHL · 3.8y

Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Kristoffer Gunnarsson 17′#135	never stuck	0 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Ryan O'Connell 17′#203	never stuck	0 GP
Blake Siebenaler 14′#77	never stuck	0 GP