Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | Max Plante | F | NCAA | 20.5 | DET | 24′ #47 | 1.3 | 43.7 | 60% | 2.3y @22.8 | 03078 | 31.5 |
| 402 | Dylan James | F | NCAAPRO | 22.9 | DET* | 22′ #40 | 0.8 | 26.9 | 45% | 1.1y @24 | 02042 | 20 |
| 703 | Larry Keenan | D | NCAAPRO | 21.4 | DET* | 23′ #117 | 0.53 | 17.7 | 38% | 1.4y @22.8 | 01131 | 13.4 |
| 792 | Brady Cleveland | D | NCAAPRO | 21.4 | DET* | 23′ #47 | 0.05 | 1.7 | 40% | 1.4y @22.8 | 01129 | 12.2 |
| 1020 | Fisher Scott | D | NCAAPRO | 21.8 | DET* | 24′ #208 | 0.39 | 13.1 | 28% | 2.3y @24.1 | 0026 | 9.2 |
| 1075 | Jack Phelan | D | NCAAPRO | 22.2 | DET* | 23′ #137 | 0.24 | 8.2 | 28% | 2.4y @24.6 | 0026 | 8.6 |
| 1174 | Owen Mehlenbacher | F | NCAAPRO | 22.6 | DET* | 22′ #201 | 0.28 | 9.5 | 12% | 0.6y @23.2 | 0025 | 7.3 |
| 1751 | Oscar Plandowski | D | NCAAPRO | 23.3 | DET* | 21′ #155 | 0.07 | 2.2 | 12% | 2.6y @25.9 | 0016 | 3.2 |
| 1970 | John Whipple | D | NCAA | 20.6 | DET* | 24′ #144 | 0.06 | 1.9 | 7% | 3.8y @24.4 | 000 | 1.5 |
Who each prospect looks like
75. Max Plante60% NHL · 2.3y
| Brayden Point 14′#79 | 95 pk | 720 GP |
| Vitaly Abramov 16′#65 | never stuck | 5 GP |
| Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75 | 87 pk | 674 GP |
| Jeremy Bracco 15′#61 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jordan Kyrou 16′#35 | 83 pk | 488 GP |
402. Dylan James45% NHL · 1.1y
| Martin Frk 12′#49 | 30 pk | 124 GP |
| Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36 | never stuck | 3 GP |
| Pontus Aberg 12′#37 | 42 pk | 132 GP |
| Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Alexander Volkov 17′#48 | never stuck | 46 GP |
703. Larry Keenan38% NHL · 1.4y
| Christian Jaros 15′#139 | never stuck | 94 GP |
| Lucas Carlsson 16′#110 | never stuck | 73 GP |
| Joey Keane 18′#88 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Trevor Carrick 12′#115 | never stuck | 7 GP |
| Cale Fleury 17′#87 | 11 pk | 100 GP |
792. Brady Cleveland40% NHL · 1.4y
| Dillon Fournier 12′#48 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Roland McKeown 14′#50 | never stuck | 16 GP |
| Matthew Spencer 15′#44 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jeremy Lauzon 15′#52 | 16 pk | 384 GP |
| Adam Pelech 12′#65 | 29 pk | 642 GP |
1020. Fisher Scott28% NHL · 2.3y
| Declan Chisholm 18′#150 | 23 pk | 125 GP |
| Jakub Galvas 17′#150 | never stuck | 6 GP |
| Tyler Tucker 18′#200 | 20 pk | 159 GP |
| Tim Berni 18′#159 | never stuck | 59 GP |
| Brandon Crawley 17′#123 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1075. Jack Phelan28% NHL · 2.4y
| Anton Lindholm 14′#144 | never stuck | 66 GP |
| Jakub Galvas 17′#150 | never stuck | 6 GP |
| Tyler Tucker 18′#200 | 20 pk | 159 GP |
| Jake Dotchin 12′#161 | 26 pk | 103 GP |
| Connor Hobbs 15′#143 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1174. Owen Mehlenbacher12% NHL · 0.6y
| Conner Bleackley 16′#144 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Radel Fazleev 14′#168 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Oskar Steen 16′#165 | never stuck | 60 GP |
| Pavel Koltygin 17′#176 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1751. Oscar Plandowski12% NHL · 2.6y
| Dmitriy Zaitsev 16′#207 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Chaz Reddekopp 15′#187 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Gustav Bouramman 15′#201 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Sergei Boikov 15′#161 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Alex Kannok-Leipert 18′#161 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1970. John Whipple7% NHL · 3.8y
| Brandon Crawley 17′#123 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Kristoffer Gunnarsson 17′#135 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Tim Berni 18′#159 | never stuck | 59 GP |
| Ryan O'Connell 17′#203 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Blake Siebenaler 14′#77 | never stuck | 0 GP |