Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
1068	Will Murphy	D	LHJMQ	19	DET*	25′ #172	0.21	4.8	23%	4y @23	0029	8.7
1167	Grayden Robertson-Palmer	F	LHJMQ	19	DET*	25′ #204	0.2	4.6	15%	5.2y @24.2	0031	7.5

Who each prospect looks like

1068. Will Murphy23% NHL · 4y

John Gilmour 13′#198	never stuck	37 GP
Matt Benning 12′#175	26 pk	465 GP
Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140	never stuck	0 GP
Matt Roy 15′#194	29 pk	517 GP
Tyler Nanne 14′#142	never stuck	0 GP

1167. Grayden Robertson-Palmer15% NHL · 5.2y

Lukas Jasek 15′#174	never stuck	0 GP
Jonny Brodzinski 13′#148	31 pk	264 GP
Matthew Deblouw 12′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Dominik Kubalik 13′#191	56 pk	357 GP
Brendan Woods 12′#129	never stuck	7 GP