Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
564	Charlie Forslund	F	ALLSVENSKANPRO	20.3	DET*	24′ #176	0.32	10	33%	2.3y @22.6	0355	16.2
851	Liam Dower Nilsson	F	ALLSVENSKANPRO	23.4	DET*	21′ #134	1.12	34.8	15%	1.2y @24.6	0037	11.4

Who each prospect looks like

564. Charlie Forslund33% NHL · 2.3y

Maksim Sushko 17′#107	never stuck	2 GP
Beck Malenstyn 16′#145	21 pk	262 GP
Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Nick Caamano 16′#146	never stuck	36 GP
Austin Wagner 15′#99	28 pk	178 GP

851. Liam Dower Nilsson15% NHL · 1.2y

Glenn Gawdin 15′#116	never stuck	13 GP
Olle Lycksell 17′#168	never stuck	52 GP
Liam Kirk 18′#189	never stuck	0 GP
Parker Foo 17′#144	never stuck	0 GP
Adam Mascherin 18′#100	never stuck	0 GP