Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
#PlayerPosLeagueAgeOrgDraftP/GPNHLeP(NHL)ETAUpside bandScore
101Michael Brandsegg-NygårdFAHLPRO20.9DET*24′ #150.7326.562%1.7y @22.6
92965
29.6
629Ondrej BecherFAHLPRO22.5DET*24′ #800.4716.835%1.1y @23.6
01237
15
786Andrew GibsonDAHLPRO21.5DET*23′ #420.186.645%1.3y @22.8
01129
12.3
1380Chase StillmanFAHLPRO23.4DET21′ #290.3813.512%1.1y @24.5
0023
5.7
1441Shai BuiumDAHLPRO23.4DET21′ #360.391412%0.3y @23.7
0017
5.1
1972Redmond SavageFAHLPRO23.3DET*21′ #1140.217.55%4y @27.3
000
1.4
101. Michael Brandsegg-Nygård62% NHL · 1.7y
Jake DeBrusk 15#1464 pk628 GP
Tanner Pearson 12#3053 pk778 GP
Grigori Denisenko 18#15never stuck33 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15#3318 pk123 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17#3634 pk387 GP
629. Ondrej Becher35% NHL · 1.1y
Jonathan Ang 16#94never stuck0 GP
Jonathan Gruden 18#95never stuck16 GP
Austin Poganski 14#110never stuck22 GP
Juho Lammikko 14#6516 pk183 GP
Fabian Zetterlund 17#6346 pk329 GP
786. Andrew Gibson45% NHL · 1.3y
Roland McKeown 14#50never stuck16 GP
Matthew Spencer 15#44never stuck0 GP
Josh Jacobs 14#41never stuck3 GP
Jeremy Lauzon 15#5216 pk384 GP
Dillon Fournier 12#48never stuck0 GP
1380. Chase Stillman12% NHL · 1.1y
Marcus Davidsson 17#37never stuck0 GP
Mitchell Moroz 12#32never stuck0 GP
Ryan Gropp 15#41never stuck0 GP
Cam Morrison 16#40never stuck0 GP
Brett Pollock 14#45never stuck0 GP
1441. Shai Buium12% NHL · 0.3y
Jared McIsaac 18#36never stuck0 GP
Jeremy Roy 15#31never stuck0 GP
Dylan Blujus 12#40never stuck0 GP
Jett Woo 18#37never stuck0 GP
Ville Pokka 12#34never stuck0 GP
1972. Redmond Savage5% NHL · 4y
Alexander Delnov 12#114never stuck0 GP
Ivan Lodnia 17#85never stuck0 GP
Milos Roman 18#122never stuck0 GP
Tanner Kaspick 16#119never stuck0 GP
Igor Shvyrev 17#125never stuck0 GP