Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | Michael Brandsegg-Nygård | F | AHLPRO | 20.9 | DET* | 24′ #15 | 0.73 | 26.5 | 62% | 1.7y @22.6 | 92965 | 29.6 |
| 629 | Ondrej Becher | F | AHLPRO | 22.5 | DET* | 24′ #80 | 0.47 | 16.8 | 35% | 1.1y @23.6 | 01237 | 15 |
| 786 | Andrew Gibson | D | AHLPRO | 21.5 | DET* | 23′ #42 | 0.18 | 6.6 | 45% | 1.3y @22.8 | 01129 | 12.3 |
| 1380 | Chase Stillman | F | AHLPRO | 23.4 | DET | 21′ #29 | 0.38 | 13.5 | 12% | 1.1y @24.5 | 0023 | 5.7 |
| 1441 | Shai Buium | D | AHLPRO | 23.4 | DET | 21′ #36 | 0.39 | 14 | 12% | 0.3y @23.7 | 0017 | 5.1 |
| 1972 | Redmond Savage | F | AHLPRO | 23.3 | DET* | 21′ #114 | 0.21 | 7.5 | 5% | 4y @27.3 | 000 | 1.4 |
Who each prospect looks like
101. Michael Brandsegg-Nygård62% NHL · 1.7y
| Jake DeBrusk 15′#14 | 64 pk | 628 GP |
| Tanner Pearson 12′#30 | 53 pk | 778 GP |
| Grigori Denisenko 18′#15 | never stuck | 33 GP |
| Mitchell Stephens 15′#33 | 18 pk | 123 GP |
| Jesper Boqvist 17′#36 | 34 pk | 387 GP |
629. Ondrej Becher35% NHL · 1.1y
| Jonathan Ang 16′#94 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jonathan Gruden 18′#95 | never stuck | 16 GP |
| Austin Poganski 14′#110 | never stuck | 22 GP |
| Juho Lammikko 14′#65 | 16 pk | 183 GP |
| Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63 | 46 pk | 329 GP |
786. Andrew Gibson45% NHL · 1.3y
| Roland McKeown 14′#50 | never stuck | 16 GP |
| Matthew Spencer 15′#44 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Josh Jacobs 14′#41 | never stuck | 3 GP |
| Jeremy Lauzon 15′#52 | 16 pk | 384 GP |
| Dillon Fournier 12′#48 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1380. Chase Stillman12% NHL · 1.1y
| Marcus Davidsson 17′#37 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Mitchell Moroz 12′#32 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Ryan Gropp 15′#41 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Cam Morrison 16′#40 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Brett Pollock 14′#45 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1441. Shai Buium12% NHL · 0.3y
| Jared McIsaac 18′#36 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jeremy Roy 15′#31 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Dylan Blujus 12′#40 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jett Woo 18′#37 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Ville Pokka 12′#34 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1972. Redmond Savage5% NHL · 4y
| Alexander Delnov 12′#114 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Ivan Lodnia 17′#85 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Milos Roman 18′#122 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Tanner Kaspick 16′#119 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Igor Shvyrev 17′#125 | never stuck | 0 GP |