Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
99	Anton Johansson	D	SHLPRO	22.2	DET*	22′ #105	0.4	19.6	38%	1.8y @24	01344	15.9
143	Larry Keenan	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	DET*	23′ #117	0.53	17.7	38%	1.4y @22.8	01131	13.4
168	Andrew Gibson	D	AHLPRO	21.5	DET*	23′ #42	0.18	6.6	45%	1.3y @22.8	01129	12.3
171	Brady Cleveland	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	DET*	23′ #47	0.05	1.7	40%	1.4y @22.8	01129	12.2
262	Nikita Tyurin	D	MHL	19.1	DET*	25′ #140	0.6	8.9	25%	4y @23.1	0029	10
289	Fisher Scott	D	NCAAPRO	21.8	DET*	24′ #208	0.39	13.1	28%	2.3y @24.1	0026	9.2
317	Will Murphy	D	LHJMQ	19	DET*	25′ #172	0.21	4.8	23%	4y @23	0029	8.7
321	Jack Phelan	D	NCAAPRO	22.2	DET*	23′ #137	0.24	8.2	28%	2.4y @24.6	0026	8.6
456	Shai Buium	D	AHLPRO	23.4	DET	21′ #36	0.39	14	12%	0.3y @23.7	0017	5.1
548	Oscar Plandowski	D	NCAAPRO	23.3	DET*	21′ #155	0.07	2.2	12%	2.6y @25.9	0016	3.2
616	John Whipple	D	NCAA	20.6	DET*	24′ #144	0.06	1.9	7%	3.8y @24.4	000	1.5

Who each prospect looks like

99. Anton Johansson38% NHL · 1.8y

Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Reilly Walsh 17′#81	never stuck	1 GP
Andrei Mironov 15′#101	never stuck	10 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP

143. Larry Keenan38% NHL · 1.4y

Christian Jaros 15′#139	never stuck	94 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP

168. Andrew Gibson45% NHL · 1.3y

Roland McKeown 14′#50	never stuck	16 GP
Matthew Spencer 15′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Josh Jacobs 14′#41	never stuck	3 GP
Jeremy Lauzon 15′#52	16 pk	384 GP
Dillon Fournier 12′#48	never stuck	0 GP

171. Brady Cleveland40% NHL · 1.4y

Dillon Fournier 12′#48	never stuck	0 GP
Roland McKeown 14′#50	never stuck	16 GP
Matthew Spencer 15′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Jeremy Lauzon 15′#52	16 pk	384 GP
Adam Pelech 12′#65	29 pk	642 GP

262. Nikita Tyurin25% NHL · 4y

Jeff Taylor 14′#203	never stuck	0 GP
Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140	never stuck	0 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Jaccob Slavin 12′#120	44 pk	784 GP
Ville Rasanen 17′#197	never stuck	0 GP

289. Fisher Scott28% NHL · 2.3y

Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Tyler Tucker 18′#200	20 pk	159 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP

317. Will Murphy23% NHL · 4y

John Gilmour 13′#198	never stuck	37 GP
Matt Benning 12′#175	26 pk	465 GP
Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140	never stuck	0 GP
Matt Roy 15′#194	29 pk	517 GP
Tyler Nanne 14′#142	never stuck	0 GP

321. Jack Phelan28% NHL · 2.4y

Anton Lindholm 14′#144	never stuck	66 GP
Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Tyler Tucker 18′#200	20 pk	159 GP
Jake Dotchin 12′#161	26 pk	103 GP
Connor Hobbs 15′#143	never stuck	0 GP

456. Shai Buium12% NHL · 0.3y

Jared McIsaac 18′#36	never stuck	0 GP
Jeremy Roy 15′#31	never stuck	0 GP
Dylan Blujus 12′#40	never stuck	0 GP
Jett Woo 18′#37	never stuck	0 GP
Ville Pokka 12′#34	never stuck	0 GP

548. Oscar Plandowski12% NHL · 2.6y

Dmitriy Zaitsev 16′#207	never stuck	0 GP
Chaz Reddekopp 15′#187	never stuck	0 GP
Gustav Bouramman 15′#201	never stuck	0 GP
Sergei Boikov 15′#161	never stuck	0 GP
Alex Kannok-Leipert 18′#161	never stuck	0 GP

616. John Whipple7% NHL · 3.8y

Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Kristoffer Gunnarsson 17′#135	never stuck	0 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Ryan O'Connell 17′#203	never stuck	0 GP
Blake Siebenaler 14′#77	never stuck	0 GP