Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
182	Emil Hemming	F	OHL	20.1	DAL*	24′ #29	1.37	33.7	57%	2.8y @22.9	02561	27.1
288	Atte Joki	F	LIIGAPRO	19.1	DAL*	25′ #146	0.3	13.3	47%	3.5y @22.6	01859	23.1
347	Jakub Vanecek	D	WHL	18.5	DAL*	26′ #59	0.59	14.6	50%	3.3y @21.8	01655	21.6
434	Cameron Schmidt	F	WHL	19.6	DAL*	25′ #94	1.44	35.5	35%	2.8y @22.4	01056	19.3
498	Ryan Brown	F	OHL	18.8	DAL*	26′ #155	0.85	20.9	38%	4y @22.8	0052	17.6
513	George Fegaras	D	NCAAPRO	22.3	DAL*	22′ #83	0.62	20.8	38%	1.8y @24.1	01352	17.3
584	Matthew Seminoff	F	AHLPRO	22.6	DAL*	22′ #179	0.69	25.1	28%	1.2y @23.8	0048	15.7
671	Tristan Bertucci	D	AHLPRO	21.1	DAL*	23′ #61	0.38	13.7	45%	1.7y @22.8	01329	14
856	Christian Kyrou	D	AHLPRO	22.9	DAL*	22′ #50	0.54	19.5	23%	1.2y @24.1	0027	11.3
957	Aram Minnetian	D	NCAAPRO	21.4	DAL*	23′ #125	0.31	10.3	30%	2.5y @23.9	0426	10.2
966	Brandon Gorzynski	F	WHL	19.4	DAL*	25′ #126	1.07	26.2	25%	3.7y @23.1	0041	10
1026	Jasper Kuhta	F	OHL	19.8	DAL*	26′ #197	1.02	25	17%	3.3y @23.1	0041	9.1
1190	Brad Gardiner	F	OHL	21.5	DAL*	23′ #79	0.97	23.9	17%	1y @22.5	0023	7.2
1262	Dawson Sharkey	F	LHJMQ	20.1	DAL*	25′ #190	1.03	23.7	12%	2.2y @22.3	0033	6.7
1344	Artem Grushnikov	D	AHLPRO	23.4	DAL*	21′ #48	0.04	1.3	15%	1.9y @25.3	0027	6
1520	Niilopekka Muhonen	F	WHL	20.5	DAL*	24′ #158	0.31	7.6	12%	4.3y @24.8	0021	4.5
1696	William Samuelsson	F	USHL	20.9	DAL*	24′ #222	0.46	9	7%	4y @24.9	0012	3.6
1823	Charlie Paquette	F	OHL	20.7	DAL*	25′ #222	0.98	24.1	7%	3.1y @23.8	007	2.8
1834	Gavin White	D	AHLPRO	23.8	DAL*	22′ #115	0.23	8.3	10%	2.3y @26.1	0010	2.7
1985	Albert Sjoberg	F	ALLSVENSKANPRO	23.4	DAL*	21′ #207	0.33	10.1	5%	3.9y @27.3	000	1.3
1991	Justin Ertel	F	AHLPRO	23.2	DAL*	21′ #79	0.16	5.7	5%	0.7y @23.9	000	1.2
1999	Ayrton Martino	F	AHLPRO	23.9	DAL*	21′ #73	0.29	10.6	0%	—	000	1.1

Who each prospect looks like

182. Emil Hemming57% NHL · 2.8y

Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
John Quenneville 14′#30	never stuck	42 GP
Jason Dickinson 13′#29	35 pk	566 GP
Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP
Chris Tierney 12′#55	49 pk	649 GP

288. Atte Joki47% NHL · 3.5y

Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Maksim Sushko 17′#107	never stuck	2 GP
Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Beck Malenstyn 16′#145	21 pk	262 GP
Philipp Kurashev 18′#120	59 pk	360 GP

347. Jakub Vanecek50% NHL · 3.3y

Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Michael Brodzinski 13′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP
Brady Skjei 12′#28	48 pk	773 GP

434. Cameron Schmidt35% NHL · 2.8y

Anthony Richard 15′#100	never stuck	40 GP
Maxime Comtois 17′#50	49 pk	211 GP
Tyler Steenbergen 17′#128	never stuck	0 GP
Kevin Roy 12′#97	never stuck	28 GP
Akil Thomas 18′#51	never stuck	32 GP

498. Ryan Brown38% NHL · 4y

Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Jesper Bratt 16′#162	89 pk	634 GP

513. George Fegaras38% NHL · 1.8y

Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Reilly Walsh 17′#81	never stuck	1 GP
Andrei Mironov 15′#101	never stuck	10 GP
Josh Brook 17′#56	never stuck	0 GP

584. Matthew Seminoff28% NHL · 1.2y

Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP
Andreas Johnsson 13′#202	48 pk	259 GP
Rourke Chartier 14′#149	never stuck	56 GP
Michael Bunting 14′#117	74 pk	418 GP
Cameron Hughes 15′#165	never stuck	5 GP

671. Tristan Bertucci45% NHL · 1.7y

Guillaume Brisebois 15′#66	never stuck	30 GP
Kale Clague 16′#51	never stuck	94 GP
Travis Dermott 15′#34	29 pk	348 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP

856. Christian Kyrou23% NHL · 1.2y

Sean Durzi 18′#52	44 pk	302 GP
Cam Dineen 16′#68	never stuck	38 GP
Madison Bowey 13′#53	26 pk	158 GP
Ty Emberson 18′#73	27 pk	178 GP
Reilly Walsh 17′#81	never stuck	1 GP

957. Aram Minnetian30% NHL · 2.5y

Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Colton White 15′#97	14 pk	107 GP
Anton Cederholm 13′#145	never stuck	0 GP

966. Brandon Gorzynski25% NHL · 3.7y

Zach Stepan 12′#112	never stuck	0 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Reid Duke 14′#169	never stuck	0 GP
Vinnie Hinostroza 12′#169	44 pk	477 GP

1026. Jasper Kuhta17% NHL · 3.3y

Edgars Kulda 14′#193	never stuck	0 GP
Francis Beauvillier 12′#174	never stuck	0 GP
Chase Lang 14′#167	never stuck	0 GP
Jeremiah Addison 15′#207	never stuck	0 GP
Cooper Marody 15′#158	never stuck	7 GP