Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 347 | Jakub Vanecek | D | WHL | 18.5 | DAL* | 26′ #59 | 0.59 | 14.6 | 50% | 3.3y @21.8 | 01655 | 21.6 |
| 434 | Cameron Schmidt | F | WHL | 19.6 | DAL* | 25′ #94 | 1.44 | 35.5 | 35% | 2.8y @22.4 | 01056 | 19.3 |
| 966 | Brandon Gorzynski | F | WHL | 19.4 | DAL* | 25′ #126 | 1.07 | 26.2 | 25% | 3.7y @23.1 | 0041 | 10 |
| 1520 | Niilopekka Muhonen | F | WHL | 20.5 | DAL* | 24′ #158 | 0.31 | 7.6 | 12% | 4.3y @24.8 | 0021 | 4.5 |
Who each prospect looks like
347. Jakub Vanecek50% NHL · 3.3y
| Mark Friedman 14′#86 | never stuck | 93 GP |
| Michael Brodzinski 13′#141 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Connor Clifton 13′#133 | 24 pk | 434 GP |
| Will Butcher 13′#123 | 45 pk | 275 GP |
| Brady Skjei 12′#28 | 48 pk | 773 GP |
434. Cameron Schmidt35% NHL · 2.8y
| Anthony Richard 15′#100 | never stuck | 40 GP |
| Maxime Comtois 17′#50 | 49 pk | 211 GP |
| Tyler Steenbergen 17′#128 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Kevin Roy 12′#97 | never stuck | 28 GP |
| Akil Thomas 18′#51 | never stuck | 32 GP |
966. Brandon Gorzynski25% NHL · 3.7y
| Zach Stepan 12′#112 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Allan McShane 18′#97 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Connor Brown 12′#156 | 51 pk | 676 GP |
| Reid Duke 14′#169 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Vinnie Hinostroza 12′#169 | 44 pk | 477 GP |
1520. Niilopekka Muhonen12% NHL · 4.3y
| Patrik Siikanen 18′#195 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby 16′#147 | never stuck | 99 GP |
| Conner Bleackley 16′#144 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Liam Gorman 18′#177 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Matej Pekar 18′#94 | never stuck | 0 GP |