Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 182 | Emil Hemming | F | OHL | 20.1 | DAL* | 24′ #29 | 1.37 | 33.7 | 57% | 2.8y @22.9 | 02561 | 27.1 |
| 498 | Ryan Brown | F | OHL | 18.8 | DAL* | 26′ #155 | 0.85 | 20.9 | 38% | 4y @22.8 | 0052 | 17.6 |
| 1026 | Jasper Kuhta | F | OHL | 19.8 | DAL* | 26′ #197 | 1.02 | 25 | 17% | 3.3y @23.1 | 0041 | 9.1 |
| 1190 | Brad Gardiner | F | OHL | 21.5 | DAL* | 23′ #79 | 0.97 | 23.9 | 17% | 1y @22.5 | 0023 | 7.2 |
| 1823 | Charlie Paquette | F | OHL | 20.7 | DAL* | 25′ #222 | 0.98 | 24.1 | 7% | 3.1y @23.8 | 007 | 2.8 |
Who each prospect looks like
182. Emil Hemming57% NHL · 2.8y
| Tanner Pearson 12′#30 | 53 pk | 778 GP |
| John Quenneville 14′#30 | never stuck | 42 GP |
| Jason Dickinson 13′#29 | 35 pk | 566 GP |
| Adam Erne 13′#33 | 36 pk | 424 GP |
| Chris Tierney 12′#55 | 49 pk | 649 GP |
498. Ryan Brown38% NHL · 4y
| Luke Johnson 13′#134 | never stuck | 32 GP |
| Jake Guentzel 13′#77 | 91 pk | 681 GP |
| Jonne Tammela 15′#118 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Shane Eiserman 14′#100 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jesper Bratt 16′#162 | 89 pk | 634 GP |
1026. Jasper Kuhta17% NHL · 3.3y
| Edgars Kulda 14′#193 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Francis Beauvillier 12′#174 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Chase Lang 14′#167 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jeremiah Addison 15′#207 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Cooper Marody 15′#158 | never stuck | 7 GP |
1190. Brad Gardiner17% NHL · 1y
| Damien Riat 16′#117 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jackson Houck 13′#94 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Austin Poganski 14′#110 | never stuck | 22 GP |
| Grant Mismash 17′#61 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Taylor Raddysh 16′#58 | 39 pk | 373 GP |
1823. Charlie Paquette7% NHL · 3.1y
| Christopher Brown 14′#151 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Damien Riat 16′#117 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Nikita Korostelev 15′#185 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Blaine Byron 13′#179 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Ryan Olsen 12′#160 | never stuck | 0 GP |