Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
584	Matthew Seminoff	F	AHLPRO	22.7	DAL	22′ #179	0.69	25.1	28%	1.1y @23.8	0048	15.7
671	Tristan Bertucci	D	AHLPRO	21.1	DAL*	23′ #61	0.38	13.7	45%	1.7y @22.8	01329	14
856	Christian Kyrou	D	AHLPRO	22.9	DAL*	22′ #50	0.54	19.5	23%	1.2y @24.1	0027	11.3
1344	Artem Grushnikov	D	AHLPRO	23.4	DAL*	21′ #48	0.04	1.3	15%	1.9y @25.3	0027	6
1834	Gavin White	D	AHLPRO	23.8	DAL*	22′ #115	0.23	8.3	10%	2.3y @26.1	0010	2.7
1990	Justin Ertel	F	AHLPRO	23.2	DAL	21′ #79	0.16	5.7	5%	0.7y @23.9	000	1.2
1998	Ayrton Martino	F	AHLPRO	23.9	DAL	21′ #73	0.29	10.6	0%	—	000	1.1

Who each prospect looks like

584. Matthew Seminoff28% NHL · 1.1y

Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP
Andreas Johnsson 13′#202	48 pk	259 GP
Rourke Chartier 14′#149	never stuck	56 GP
Michael Bunting 14′#117	74 pk	418 GP
Cameron Hughes 15′#165	never stuck	5 GP

671. Tristan Bertucci45% NHL · 1.7y

Guillaume Brisebois 15′#66	never stuck	30 GP
Kale Clague 16′#51	never stuck	94 GP
Travis Dermott 15′#34	29 pk	348 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP

856. Christian Kyrou23% NHL · 1.2y

Sean Durzi 18′#52	44 pk	302 GP
Cam Dineen 16′#68	never stuck	38 GP
Madison Bowey 13′#53	26 pk	158 GP
Ty Emberson 18′#73	27 pk	178 GP
Reilly Walsh 17′#81	never stuck	1 GP

1344. Artem Grushnikov15% NHL · 1.9y

Brandon Hickey 14′#64	never stuck	0 GP
Seth Barton 18′#81	never stuck	0 GP
Filip Westerlund 17′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Carl Dahlstrom 13′#51	never stuck	67 GP
Ryan Collins 14′#47	never stuck	0 GP

1834. Gavin White10% NHL · 2.3y

Wyatte Wylie 18′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Dysin Mayo 14′#133	never stuck	85 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Parker Wotherspoon 15′#112	31 pk	188 GP

1990. Justin Ertel5% NHL · 0.7y

Nick Henry 17′#94	never stuck	0 GP
Zach Gallant 17′#83	never stuck	0 GP
Linus Lindstrom 16′#96	never stuck	0 GP
Alexander Khovanov 18′#86	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Lodnia 17′#85	never stuck	0 GP

1998. Ayrton Martino0% NHL · —

Linus Lindstrom 16′#96	never stuck	0 GP
Zach Gallant 17′#83	never stuck	0 GP
Stelio Mattheos 17′#73	never stuck	0 GP
William Bitten 16′#70	never stuck	4 GP
Spencer Smallman 15′#138	never stuck	0 GP