Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
171	Emil Hemming	F	OHL	20.2	DAL*	24′ #29	1.37	33.7	57%	2.7y @22.9	02561	27.1
272	Atte Joki	F	LIIGAPRO	19.1	DAL*	25′ #146	0.3	13.3	47%	3.5y @22.6	01859	23.1
366	Cameron Schmidt	F	WHL	19.6	DAL*	25′ #94	1.44	35.5	35%	2.8y @22.4	01056	19.3
422	Ryan Brown	F	OHL	18.8	DAL*	26′ #155	0.85	20.9	38%	4y @22.8	0052	17.6
481	Matthew Seminoff	F	AHLPRO	22.7	DAL	22′ #179	0.69	25.1	28%	1.1y @23.8	0048	15.7
708	Brandon Gorzynski	F	WHL	19.4	DAL*	25′ #126	1.07	26.2	25%	3.7y @23.1	0041	10
735	Jasper Kuhta	F	OHL	19.8	DAL*	26′ #197	1.02	25	17%	3.3y @23.1	0041	9.1
826	Brad Gardiner	F	OHL	21.5	DAL*	23′ #79	0.97	23.9	17%	1y @22.5	0023	7.2
875	Dawson Sharkey	F	LHJMQ	20.1	DAL*	25′ #190	1.03	23.7	12%	2.2y @22.3	0033	6.7
1039	Niilopekka Muhonen	F	WHL	20.5	DAL*	24′ #158	0.31	7.6	12%	4.3y @24.8	0021	4.5
1162	William Samuelsson	F	USHL	20.9	DAL*	24′ #222	0.46	9	7%	4y @24.9	0012	3.6
1253	Charlie Paquette	F	OHL	20.7	DAL*	25′ #222	0.98	24.1	7%	3.1y @23.8	007	2.8
1368	Albert Sjoberg	F	ALLSVENSKANPRO	23.4	DAL*	21′ #207	0.33	10.1	5%	3.9y @27.3	000	1.3
1373	Justin Ertel	F	AHLPRO	23.2	DAL	21′ #79	0.16	5.7	5%	0.7y @23.9	000	1.2
1379	Ayrton Martino	F	AHLPRO	23.9	DAL	21′ #73	0.29	10.6	0%	—	000	1.1

Who each prospect looks like

171. Emil Hemming57% NHL · 2.7y

Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
John Quenneville 14′#30	never stuck	42 GP
Jason Dickinson 13′#29	35 pk	566 GP
Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP
Chris Tierney 12′#55	49 pk	649 GP

272. Atte Joki47% NHL · 3.5y

Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Maksim Sushko 17′#107	never stuck	2 GP
Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Beck Malenstyn 16′#145	21 pk	262 GP
Philipp Kurashev 18′#120	59 pk	360 GP

366. Cameron Schmidt35% NHL · 2.8y

Anthony Richard 15′#100	never stuck	40 GP
Maxime Comtois 17′#50	49 pk	211 GP
Tyler Steenbergen 17′#128	never stuck	0 GP
Kevin Roy 12′#97	never stuck	28 GP
Akil Thomas 18′#51	never stuck	32 GP

422. Ryan Brown38% NHL · 4y

Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Jesper Bratt 16′#162	89 pk	634 GP

481. Matthew Seminoff28% NHL · 1.1y

Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP
Andreas Johnsson 13′#202	48 pk	259 GP
Rourke Chartier 14′#149	never stuck	56 GP
Michael Bunting 14′#117	74 pk	418 GP
Cameron Hughes 15′#165	never stuck	5 GP

708. Brandon Gorzynski25% NHL · 3.7y

Zach Stepan 12′#112	never stuck	0 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Reid Duke 14′#169	never stuck	0 GP
Vinnie Hinostroza 12′#169	44 pk	477 GP

735. Jasper Kuhta17% NHL · 3.3y

Edgars Kulda 14′#193	never stuck	0 GP
Francis Beauvillier 12′#174	never stuck	0 GP
Chase Lang 14′#167	never stuck	0 GP
Jeremiah Addison 15′#207	never stuck	0 GP
Cooper Marody 15′#158	never stuck	7 GP

826. Brad Gardiner17% NHL · 1y

Damien Riat 16′#117	never stuck	0 GP
Jackson Houck 13′#94	never stuck	0 GP
Austin Poganski 14′#110	never stuck	22 GP
Grant Mismash 17′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Taylor Raddysh 16′#58	39 pk	373 GP

875. Dawson Sharkey12% NHL · 2.2y

Joseph Blandisi 12′#162	34 pk	101 GP
Graham McPhee 16′#149	never stuck	0 GP
Zach Fischer 17′#140	never stuck	0 GP
Ross Colton 16′#118	41 pk	404 GP
Filip Sveningsson 17′#202	never stuck	0 GP

1039. Niilopekka Muhonen12% NHL · 4.3y

Patrik Siikanen 18′#195	never stuck	0 GP
Axel Jonsson-Fjallby 16′#147	never stuck	99 GP
Conner Bleackley 16′#144	never stuck	0 GP
Liam Gorman 18′#177	never stuck	0 GP
Matej Pekar 18′#94	never stuck	0 GP

1162. William Samuelsson7% NHL · 4y

Erik Walli Walterholm 17′#190	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Zlobin 12′#173	never stuck	0 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Marcus Vela 15′#190	never stuck	0 GP
Miguel Fidler 14′#143	never stuck	0 GP

1253. Charlie Paquette7% NHL · 3.1y

Christopher Brown 14′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Damien Riat 16′#117	never stuck	0 GP
Nikita Korostelev 15′#185	never stuck	0 GP
Blaine Byron 13′#179	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Olsen 12′#160	never stuck	0 GP