Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
20	Egor Shilov★	F	LHJMQ	18.3	COL*	26′ #43	1.3	29.9	78%	3.1y @21.4	244687	44.5
71	Beckett Hamilton	F	WHL	18.4	COL*	26′ #74	0.93	22.8	60%	3.5y @21.9	03183	31.8
284	Maxmilian Curran	F	WHL	20	COL*	24′ #161	1.32	32.5	45%	3.3y @23.3	01059	23.2
420	Theodore Lechner	D	USHL	18	COL*	26′ #152	0.1	1.9	45%	4.4y @22.4	01650	19.8
657	Ondrej Ruml	D	OHL	18.4	COL*	26′ #214	0.42	10.4	35%	4.5y @22.9	0844	14.3
1008	Christian Humphreys	F	OHL	20.5	COL*	24′ #215	1.35	33.2	20%	3.3y @23.8	0036	9.3
1196	Shawn Carrier	F	LHJMQ	19.4	COL*	26′ #195	1.07	24.5	15%	3.6y @23	0041	7.2
1347	Linus Funck	D	OHL	19.3	COL*	25′ #118	0.34	8.3	17%	3.5y @22.8	0026	6
1402	Cole Tuminaro	D	USHL	19.6	COL*	26′ #140	0.3	5.8	17%	3.7y @23.3	0025	5.5
1606	Nolan Roed	F	NCAA	20.8	COL*	25′ #214	0.5	16.8	7%	3.1y @23.9	0020	4.2

Who each prospect looks like

20. Egor Shilov78% NHL · 3.1y

Daniel Sprong 15′#46	57 pk	374 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Liam Foudy 18′#18	19 pk	105 GP
Curtis Lazar 13′#17	29 pk	617 GP
Joel Farabee 18′#14	57 pk	497 GP

71. Beckett Hamilton60% NHL · 3.5y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Daniel Sprong 15′#46	57 pk	374 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP

284. Maxmilian Curran45% NHL · 3.3y

Anders Bjork 14′#146	33 pk	225 GP
Myles Bell 13′#160	never stuck	0 GP
Cedric Paquette 12′#101	24 pk	448 GP
Coda Gordon 12′#165	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Eyssimont 16′#142	33 pk	269 GP

420. Theodore Lechner45% NHL · 4.4y

Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Downing 13′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Filip Westerlund 17′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP

657. Ondrej Ruml35% NHL · 4.5y

Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Michael Brodzinski 13′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP
Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP

1008. Christian Humphreys20% NHL · 3.3y

Tyler Soy 16′#205	never stuck	0 GP
Giorgio Estephan 15′#152	never stuck	0 GP
Henri Ikonen 13′#154	never stuck	0 GP
Nikita Korostelev 15′#185	never stuck	0 GP
Peter Quenneville 13′#195	never stuck	0 GP

1196. Shawn Carrier15% NHL · 3.6y

Jacob McGrew 17′#159	never stuck	0 GP
Edgars Kulda 14′#193	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Chekhovich 17′#212	never stuck	4 GP
Liam Kirk 18′#189	never stuck	0 GP
Vinnie Hinostroza 12′#169	44 pk	477 GP

1347. Linus Funck17% NHL · 3.5y

Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140	never stuck	0 GP
Jeff Taylor 14′#203	never stuck	0 GP
Jaccob Slavin 12′#120	44 pk	784 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Nico Gross 18′#101	never stuck	0 GP

1402. Cole Tuminaro17% NHL · 3.7y

Blake Hillman 16′#173	never stuck	4 GP
Spencer Stastney 18′#131	25 pk	117 GP
Jake Massie 15′#156	never stuck	0 GP
Adam Smith 16′#198	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Rehill 14′#131	never stuck	0 GP

1606. Nolan Roed7% NHL · 3.1y

Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP
Blaine Byron 13′#179	never stuck	0 GP
Daniel Walcott 14′#140	never stuck	1 GP
Aarne Talvitie 17′#160	never stuck	0 GP
Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP