Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
420	Theodore Lechner	D	USHL	18	COL*	26′ #152	0.1	1.9	45%	4.4y @22.4	01650	19.8
1402	Cole Tuminaro	D	USHL	19.6	COL*	26′ #140	0.3	5.8	17%	3.7y @23.3	0025	5.5

Who each prospect looks like

420. Theodore Lechner45% NHL · 4.4y

Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Downing 13′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Filip Westerlund 17′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP

1402. Cole Tuminaro17% NHL · 3.7y

Blake Hillman 16′#173	never stuck	4 GP
Spencer Stastney 18′#131	25 pk	117 GP
Jake Massie 15′#156	never stuck	0 GP
Adam Smith 16′#198	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Rehill 14′#131	never stuck	0 GP